2025-26 NBA season picks and preview

The NBA season starts Tuesday and as always I am going to pick the regular season standings, awards and Conference Finals and Finals.

Western Conference Standings

1. Thunder

   1. Projected starting lineup: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

   2. The Thunder had the greatest regular season of point differential of all-time last year and won the championship. They are really good and going to be really good again this season. Not much else to say.

2. Timberwolves

   1. Projected starting lineup: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert

   2. The Timberwolves have real championship equity.  Anthony Edwards is emerging as one of the 5 best players in the NBA and they have a good surrounding cast.  The offense is going to score a lot and their defense should be among the best in the NBA.

3. Nuggets

   1. Projected starting lineup: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic

   2. I thought Denver’s offseason was great and then I watched their preseason game vs the Clippers and I was even more excited about this team.  Maybe the non-Jokic minutes can survive this year.  I expect Jokic and Denver to be right back in the title mix.

4. Clippers

   1. Projected starting lineup: James Harden, Bradley Beal, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac

   2. The depth that the Clippers have is what jumps out to me.  Yes, they are the oldest team in NBA history but I think there is a really good team here.  A full season of Kawhi, if Harden can look like he did last year, another Zubac leap, the Clippers have the horses to be a real contender in the west.

5. Warriors

   1. Projected starting lineup: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Al Horford

   2. Aside from Podziemski, the Warriors starting 5 is old.  That doesn’t mean they are bad, post-Butler trade Golden State was 23-8 and looked like real threats in the west. Curry is Curry and Horford is a great addition.  The question is, are they going to trade Jonathan Kuminga or not?

6. Rockets

   1. Projected Starting Lineup: Reed Shepard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr, Kevin Durant, Alpren Sengun

   2. The VanVleet injury is devastating to Houston’s title chances.  They’ll probably make a move for a point guard but that will weaken them in other departments.  I still think the Rockets will be really good, I just don’t see championship equity like previously.

7. Spurs

   1. Projected starting lineup: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama

   2. I promised myself I wouldn’t be a year too late on the Spurs like I have other teams in the past.  The west is so good, getting 7th will be a real challenge.  Wembanyama is destined for a breakout year, he has the goods to be the best player in the world.  I am interested to see how Fox fits into this whole equation (after he returns from his injury), I am not his biggest fan but he is still a really good player.  Also number 2 pick Dylan Harper might be really good really fast.

8. Lakers

   1. Projected starting lineup: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton

   2. Someone in the west is going to slip, my guess is the Lakers.  Luka is awesome, I am not sold on the rest of the roster.  LeBron is already hurt, I can’t bet on Deandre Ayton and the bench isn’t very good. Austin Reaves is great though and will get paid a ton this summer.

9. Mavericks

   1. Projected starting lineup: D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II

   2. I love Cooper Flagg and love Dallas’ defense, that team is going to be a bear to score on.  I have 2 main worries, the health of their stars and the offense.  Kyrie is already hurt and we have to wonder if he will be Kyrie when he returns and Anthony Davis seems to get hurt every year.  I don’t trust his health.  Also, how they generate points on offense is concerning, there is going to be a lot of Flagg early.  This roster is a really weird fit with too many big guys and too few guards.

10. Suns

    1. Projected starting lineup: Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Ryan Dunn, Mark Williams

    2. I think there is a gap between 9 and 10 in the Western Conference and I think Phoenix is the best of the lower half of the west.  That is probably a mistake but I am buying into the Suns, even if I hate it.  However, if you told me any of the teams I have 10-14 finished here I wouldn’t be shocked.  Devin Booker is still awesome and they have real centers now.  Durant will be missed but I think this is a deeper team from a year ago.  I don’t think they’ll be good but they’ll be in the mix to make the play-in.

11. Grizzlies

    1. Projected starting lineup: Ja Morant, Kentavoius Caldwell-Pope, Jaylen Wells, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey

    2. I am very low on Memphis this year.  Morant and Edey will miss the beginning of the year and when they get back, how good is this team anyways?  I just am not sure you can win in any serious way building around Morant anymore.  This is a big season in Memphis.

12. Trail Blazers

    1. Projected starting lineup: Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, Deni Advija, Donovan Clingan

    2. This is a weird mismash of players.  I want to see the young guys, it is time to take the training wheels off of the young guys, Scoot Henderson tore his hamstring which isn’t great and he will miss time to start the season.  Toumani Camara is awesome though and I am excited to watch him this season.  I just don’t think Portland is ready.  Although, they could be the team that takes a big leap this year that I am a year too late on.

13. Pelicans

    1. Projected starting lineup: Jordan Poole, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson, Kevon Looney

    2. The Pelicans traded their unprotected first round pick this year so we will see how that works for them.  This is a talented group with a good coach but they’ll go how Zion goes.  If he is healthy, the Pels have a shot to be pretty good, I just can’t bet on that.

14. Kings

    1. Projected starting lineup: Dennis Schroder, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis

    2. The roster stinks, I really just don’t want to watch this team this year.  Sabonis is awesome but the rest of the roster leaves too much to be desired.  Hey, at least they have Russell Westbrook.

15. Jazz

    1. Projected starting lineup: Isaiah Collier, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, Taylor Hendricks, Walker Kessler

    2. A Lauri Markkanen trade seems to be a when not if situation at this point.  He is really good and is the one really good player Utah has.  Even if they aren’t going to be benching players to tank, they are still going to be so bad it won’t matter.  At least Ace Bailey will be fun to watch!

Eastern Conference Standings

1. Cavaliers

   1. Projected starting lineup: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen

   2. Cleveland won 64 games last year, they are likely to be around that number again this year even if they don’t win that many.  It is no longer about the regular season for the Cavs, if they don’t at least get to the finals, changes will need to be made.

2. Knicks

   1. Projected starting lineup: Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson

   2. The deal for the Cavs is the same for the Knicks.  In a weakened east, it is put up or shut up time in New York.  The pieces are in place, they have the top end talent and solid depth beyond that, it is time to make the finals.

3. Magic

   1. Projected starting lineup: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

   2. Orlando’s defense is going to be as good as it always is, the question is can the offense come along.  They need to generate baskets at a more consistent level, the Bane addition is going to provide that huge boost that I think the offense will need.  Orlando has a chance to be really good.

4. Hawks

   1. Projected starting lineup: Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis

   2. The Hawks had a great offseason.  Adding Porzingis from Boston, Nickeil Alexander Walker from Minnesota and Luke Kennard from Memphis, they reloaded around Trae Young.  The key to the season is Jalen Johnson, if he can stay healthy he will have a huge breakout season and put himself on the map outside NBA diehards.

5. Pistons

   1. Projected starting lineup: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Tobais Harris, Jalen Duren

   2. I picked the Pistons to go under 46.5 and I am sticking with that but I am less confident in it.  Cade Cunningham’s breakout last year was awesome.  Now, the question becomes, what is next?  Can he take the star to superstar leap this season?  I wrote about this team last week so go read my over/unders.

6. Bucks

   1. Projected starting lineup: Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., A.J. Green, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Myles Turner

   2. The Bucks have Giannis, beyond that the roster stinks.  In a vacuum, I like the Myles Turner addition, he is the perfect stretch big to replace Brook Lopez.  The guards worry me, however.  The loss of Lillard leaves the cupboard empty.  They’ll be relying on Kevin Porter Jr., Cole Anthony and Ryan Rollins at point guard this year which isn’t ideal.  It is a good thing the east is so bad.

7. Celtics

   1. Projected starting lineup: Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, Neemias Queta

   2. If Tatum returns and is Tatum, Boston could be higher up but even if he returns, expecting him to be Jayson Tatum right away feels like a stretch.  The defensive rebounding and rim protection is what worries me.  Boston is going to score a lot, they have a lot of really good offensive players, I just am not sure they have the center rotation to be a serious contender this season.

8. Heat

   1. Projected starting lineup: Davion Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Bam Adebayo

   2. Norman Powell was a great pick up, they gave up nothing to get him and god knows they need the extra offense.  The Herro injury is a huge concern, I worry about their offense with him, even more so without him.  Let’s get Bam some easier shots!

9. 76ers

   1. Projected starting lineup: Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr., Joel Embiid

   2. McCain is already hurt, Embiid is always hurt and Paul George is also hurt.  This team is not one I want to bet on and it is not one I want to talk about.  If Embiid is healthy all year, they’ll be a playoff team but like I think we all know about his injury history.

10. Bulls

    1. Projected starting lineup: Josh Giddey, Coby White, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Nikola Vucevic

    2. Matas Buzelis is going to be so much fun this season, that guy is a really good player.  The end of last year for Josh Giddey was great, can he carry it over?  Coby White is great but they should trade him due to his impending free agency and they have been trying to trade Vucevic forever.  The play-in Bulls will return.

11. Pacers

    1. Projected starting lineup: Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Isaiah Jackson

    2. With Tyrese Haliburton out for the season and Myles Turner gone, I just don’t see how the Pacers can win a lot of games.  That really sucks because this team was so much fun last year and seeing how they built off of that would have been awesome.  Injuries are the worst.

12. Raptors

    1. Projected starting lineup: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl

    2. The Raptors are a tax team for some unknown reason.  I liked Toronto last year, I won’t fall for it again because they have Brandon Ingram now.  The fit of this starting lineup is weird and the depth behind it isn’t very good.

13. Hornets

    1. Projected starting lineup: LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Mason Plumlee

    2. I really like Knueppel and Miller, I think the Hornets have 2 really good players there.  I am not a LaMelo fan, I just don’t think he is a winning player.  The center rotation is a mess which worries me as well.  This team is a year or two away from playoff contention.

14. Wizards

    1. Projected starting lineup: CJ McCollum, Tre Johnson, Khris Middleton, Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr

    2. I like this Washington team.  Not to be good by any stretch but to be more competitive than they’ve been the last two years.  I took their over 20.5 last week and I think that will hold true, even if they win just 21 or 22 games.

15. Nets

    1. Projected starting lineup: Egor Demine, Cam Thomas, Ziarie Williams, Michael Porter Jr., Nic Claxton

    2. The Nets own their pick which means the tank is on.  This roster stinks and I just don’t see how they win many games, they might be the worst team in the league.  Get ready to watch Cam Thomas take so many pullups you can’t believe it buddy.

Regular Season Awards

MVP: Anthony Edwards

This is a bold MVP pick but if Minnesota is as good as I think they are going to be, Edwards is going to be in the conversation.  SGA and Jokic headline the conversation as always but Shai won it last year coming off of the year his team had, he will get less credit for the Thunder winning by a million every night and I could pick Jokic but Edwards is the pick.  The scoring, the playmaking, the defense, I think it all comes together this season and Edwards can take home his first MVP.

Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg

This is a layup, Flagg is already one of the best 50 players in the NBA.  Everything about his game is awesome, maybe the most advanced American rookie we have had since his teammate Anthony Davis.  The playmaking, the defense (both in the post and on the perimeter), the rebounding, the ability to finish around the cup, Flagg is an incredible player. His pull-up shot will come along as well.  I love this player so much.

Sixth Man of the Year: Tari Eason

I love this player.  It is a very crowded wing room in Houston but I think Eason is really good.  This would be a different type of sixth man of the year but Eason is a really good player who is one of the most underrated and best defenders in the NBA.

Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama

Another layup, assuming Wemby stays healthy.  He is a top 10 defense by himself and is going to be in some scary conversations when it comes to defensive players when it is all set and done if he continues on this trajectory.

Most Improved Player: Jalen Johnson

This is the year that Jalen Johnson is going to put himself on the map nationally.  He got hurt the last 2 seasons so most casual fans probably don’t know a ton about who he is.  He is really good however and might even be the best player on the Hawks.  A Johnson leap and his health is key to the Hawks chances to be a real threat in the east.

Playoff picks

Western Conference Finals

Thunder over Nuggets in 7 games

The Nuggets made serious improvements to their roster this summer.  I love the Cam Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas additions and Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown improve their depth.  I just don’t think they are at the level of the Thunder.  Chet Holmgren is ready to take a leap and with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams already as good as they are, I think the Thunder are going to be right back in the finals.

Eastern Conference Finals

Cavaliers over Knicks in 7 game

These are two really evenly matched teams.  I just think Cleveland has a bit more talent, Mitchell, Garland, Allen and Mobley are ready to take the leap to the finals, especially with game 7 at home like I am projecting here.  The depth Cleveland has is really good as well, I really like the Lonzo Ball addition, assuming he is healthy.  The Knicks are good and I think they are better than a season ago but I think Cleveland is better and they are ready to make the leap to the finals.

NBA Finals

Thunder over Cavaliers in 6 games

This is the third straight year that I am picking a team to repeat as champions, the two previous times, I have been wrong.  I can’t not pick the Thunder though.  They were too good last year and I think they might be better this year.  Maybe not in terms of regular season wins but if Holmgren can take a real leap as an offensive player, they should be back to back champions.