How the Rockets will adjust to the loss of Fred VanVleet

The Houston Rockets made a huge trade this summer when they traded for Kevin Durant.  It was a move that signaled that they are ready to compete right now at the top of the Western Conference.  Then, on Monday, it was announced that starting point guard Fred VanVleet had torn his ACL and was going to miss the entire 2025-26 season.  It is a devastating blow for the Rockets.  How do they replace VanVleet, can it be internally or will they need to make a trade?

The Rockets roster is one that has a lot of wings and a lot of bigs.  However, their guard depth is lacking, which is why this VanVleet injury hurt so badly.  VanVleet is someone who kept Houston’s offense organized a lot last season.  The shot comes and goes but this is not a player who needs the ball in his hands to be successful.  The Rockets run a lot of offense through Alpren Sengun and Amen Thompson along with the addition of Kevin Durant, VanVleet important to this team as an organizer who doesn’t need the basketball.  There are ways for the Rockets to replace VanVleet internally.  First is just more Amen Thompson and one way to do that is use him more as the primary ballhandler in pick and rolls.  Last season, Thompson was the primary ballhandler on 150 pick and rolls, the Rockets scored 0.84 points per possession in those spots.  That is okay, Thompson ranked in the 46th percentile in that area, it isn’t that much worse than VanVleet.  With Fred VanVleet as the primary ballhandler in pick and rolls, the Rockets scored 0.87 points per possession, ranking in the 54th percentile.  Sure, Thompson ran way fewer pick and rolls than VanVleet did, 150 to FVV’s 328 but the results are similar enough that Thompson as the primary point guard is something that Houston is going to do more of this season.

This is also an opportunity for the Rockets to see what they have in 2nd year guard Reed Sheppard.  The 3rd pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, Sheppard was considered by many as the best player in that draft.  He didn’t play a ton in his first NBA season, just 654 minutes but the results were not great, he didn’t shoot the ball well, 34% on threes and 37% on twos. The two point area is the concern, Sheppard is an elite three point shooter and I have a lot of faith he will find his three ball this year.  Being under 50% on twos is worrisome for most guys, being under 40% is when you panic.  Size plays a part but Sheppard isn’t getting taller so he will need to become more crafty around the cup because you can’t survive in the NBA shooting under 40% on twos.  Sheppard has a chance to become a really good player and the future point guard of the Rockets, he needs to play better and have a big role on this team with the VanVleet injury.

The Rockets will need to survive for the first 2 months of the season but if December 15th comes around and they have a real issue due to their lack of guards, they can make a trade.  They have a bunch of future draft picks and some contracts they can use to make a move.  VanVleet himself at $25 million, Clint Capela at $6.7 million and Dorian Finney-Smith at $12.7 million are the three guys they can trade.  Some names you could see the Rockets acquiring around the trade deadline are Collin Sexton, Jose Alvarado, Payton Pritchard, T.J. McConnell, Mike Conley or, maybe, Jrue Holiday.  Nothing will be happening any time soon but it is good to have some names that the Rockets could try and trade for if they decide they need a guard.

As I mentioned before, the Rockets have a million wings and three centers who are going to expect to play.  Obviously, they made the Durant trade and I thought that was a grand slam for them.  Durant is still one of the best players in the league and while they didn’t give up nothing, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, the 10th pick and five 2nd round picks is a price you are willing to pay for a player the caliber of Durant, no matter how old he is.  I thought the Clint Capela addition was a bizarre one.  Capela returns to Houston (he spent his first 6 NBA seasons in Houston) coming off of a season where he was alright but nothing special and he isn’t going to play over Alpren Sengun or Steven Adams.  I know the Rockets want to lean into the double big lineup more, more on that later, but was Capela really necessary.  He is on a very tradeable contract so that could have played a role in Houston’s thinking.  The final big addition the Rockets made was Dorian Finney-Smith.  This is a really good move for the Rockets, Finney-Smith signed a 4-year deal but only the first 2 years on the contract are guaranteed.  He doesn’t fill a huge need, with Thompson, Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Jae’Sean Tate, the Rockets have a bunch of playable wings but Finney-Smith is a good player at a valuable position, you can never have too many of those.

I think the Rockets will start Thompson, Durant, Smith Jr., Finney-Smith and Sengun.  Maybe they give Sheppard the nod or maybe they even start double big with Adams.  However, I would start the 5 that was laid out and I expect them to do the same.  The roster is good, we have talked about most of it.  Their depth on the wing is what jumps out to me the most.  These are very versatile players who can guard at a high level and Houston is going to have one of the best defenses in the sport because of it.  They will also crush teams on the offensive glass.  Last season, the Rockets rebounded 36% of their misses, the highest clip in the league.  According to Cleaning the Glass,. with the double big look of Adams and Sengun on the floor, they rebounded 50% of their misses!  In the playoffs, that number dropped but their defensive numbers with the double big look were insane against the Warriors, giving up 91.4 points per 100 possessions with those guys sharing the court.  They are going to lean into that look more often this season and they should because it was awesome last season.

One thing I am looking out for is how they can resist the temptation of running too many plays through Kevin Durant early in the season.  Durant is going to be 37-years-old on opening night, his birthday is next week, and Houston is going to need him in the playoffs.  As a result, they need to limit how much they use him early in the season.  Durant is going to get his no matter what but the Rockets should try and limit his usage as much as they can.

Before the VanVleet injury, I thought the Rockets were the 3rd or 4th best team in the West, behind the Thunder and Nuggets and in the mix with the Timberwolves.  Now, I don’t think they are as good as those teams.  I think they fall into a tier with the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and others, in that third tier in the west.  This is still a really good basketball team, they have elite defensive versatility and should be able to create enough playmaking.  An increased role for Amen Thompson and more post touches for Alpren Sengun are ways for the Rockets to generate offense with VanVleet out.  Have I mentioned they acquired Kevin Durant this summer? They acquired, as the great Zach Lowe would say, Kevin freaking Durant, one of the best scorers the game has ever seen, so that will help them score baskets.

The Rockets will feel the loss of Fred VanVleet.  He is a good player and was really  important to the foundation of their team.  I wasn’t going to pick the Rockets to win the title but now it makes their chances of winning said championship closer to 0 than it was before and that is a bummer.  The Rockets will still be a really good team but not as good as we originally thought they’d be, that is how big of a loss VanVleet is for them.