2025-26 NBA trade season preview

The unofficial start to the NBA trade season is Monday because on December 15th about 80 players who signed free agent deals this offseason can be traded. There probably won’t be a deal on Monday (though Dennis Schroder was traded last year) but it is still fun to talk about deals. I am going to go through a few teams who might most define the trade season.

Make sure you read my breakdown of the Giannis trade sweepstakes from last week.

Celtics

Let’s start with one of the surprises in the NBA, the Boston Celtics. At 15-10, Boston’s +6.3 net rating is good enough for 5th in the NBA and over their last 13 games, they are 3rd in net rating at +10.2 with a 10-3 record. They just have a bunch of guys who fly all over the court and make plays. They also have Anfernee Simons’ $27.6 million expiring contract that they can trade along with draft picks to upgrade their roster. They have a desperate need at center and there are 2 names I want to talk about for that spot, Nic Claxton and Ivica Zubac. Claxton would be simple, Simons and a draft pick for Claxton works. Zubac is more complicated. The Clippers reportedly want 2 first round picks, fair because Zu is really good and on a good contract. However, he makes about $9 million less than Simons does, they could do Zubac and Brook Lopez for Simons and draft picks or Zubac and Bogdan Bogdanovic for Simons, Sam Hauser and draft picks. They’d need to find a third team to make that deal work because the Clippers are hard capped at the first apron. Either way, if the Celtics decide to get aggressive at the trade deadline, it could be for one of these two bigs.

Clippers

Let’s shift to Zubac’s current team. I am not expecting the Clippers to trade Ivica Zubac at the deadline, in fact I think they hold serve at the deadline and not make any big deals but that doesn’t mean they can’t. We know they want at least 2 first rounders for Zubac but would they ever move James Harden or Kawhi Leonard. My guess is no, especially on Leonard who just wants to live in Los Angeles and play for the Clippers. However, if they did ever sell on those guys, they could get some stuff in return. I think the Rockets could be a good landing spot for Harden. You could send Harden to the Rockets for Fred VanVleet, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jae’Sean Tate and the best of the Suns, Nets and Rockets 2027 first round pick. Ime Udoka has not wanted Harden back in Houston in the past so maybe Houston doesn’t do this and it could get in the way for Reed Sheppard’s big season. However, I think Harden would unlock the Rockets offense which is already elite. Meanwhile the Clippers get a likely lottery pick and 2 players who can help them in the future. There are other teams as well. Who says no to a Harden and Lopez for Trae Young swap? The Clippers have a lot of paths they could go this deadline but I expect they stand pat.

Kings

One team I do not expect to stand pat is the Sacramento Kings. The Bulls have expressed interest in Domantas Sabonis but I think we need to stop allowing these teams from trading with each other. The Toronto Raptors are one team that could be involved, an offer of R.J. Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and a future first round pick for Sabonis and Dario Saric works. Zach LaVine is another name that is being floated around that the Kings want to trade but his contract makes it hard for them to move him. DeMar DeRozan is another player I am sure the Kings would trade if they could, I am just not sure who takes him. His $24 million is not a tough one to move but he is 36 and does not shoot threes. His contract has a partially-guaranteed salary next year so Sacramento could take on a player with a bad contract to get something for DeRozan. Would the Grizzlies attach a first to move Kentavious Caldwell-Pope? Is the Jerami Grant deal in Portland one that the Kings could deal with if they got a pick back for it? Would Dallas give something to take Klay Thompson and Caleb Martin? I don’t want to take anything away from his great career but it is hard to find a team that would want to trade for DeMar DeRozan right now. The Kings will likely try to make a trade but might be forced to stand pat unless they move Sabonis. Also, anyone need a point guard because Dennis Schroder is once again available.

Lakers

The Lakers are good, their 17-7 record indicates that this is a good basketball team. However, if we dig a little bit deeper, that record is a bit flukey. According to Cleaning the Glass, their net rating is +1.8 and their expected wins to this point is 13.3, they are about 4 wins better than their net rating says they are. Which means this team is overachieving but if they are kept together their ceiling is not as high as Laker fans would want it to be. Bill Simmons mentioned it on his podcast but Herb Jones is a perfect fit for the Lakers. Would the Pelicans be willing to eat the Jarred Vanderbilt contract for an extra pick swap in the deal? If so, a deal could be Jones for Vanderbilt, Dalton Knecht, a 2031 unprotected first round pick and a 2030 pick swap. The Lakers reportedly want cap space in 2027 and Jones has an $82 million contract extension kicking in next season so dealing Vanderbilt would help them save some space in this trade. Nic Claxton is another interesting name for the Lakers because he is a perfect fit with Doncic as a rim runner. A deal could be Claxton, Jalen Wilson and Tyrese Martin for Vanderbilt, Knecht, Gabe Vincent, Maxi Kleber and the 2031 unprotected first round pick. There are a lot of things the Lakers can do at the deadline but I think they should do something whether it is big, like was mentioned, or a small upgrade.

Pistons

The Pistons are the most interesting team this trade season. I think this is a good team that will win at least one playoff series this season. I have my worries about if they can beat the Knicks, who to me have separated themselves in a weak Eastern Conference. There are a lot of very good things about this team, Cade Cunningham might be the 2nd best player in the conference who doesn’t currently have a torn achilles, this Jalen Duren’s leap feels real and they can play double big, which you have to be able to do to win. I just don’t trust their secondary creation or their shooting. Daniss Jenkins has been awesome and a revelation for them but do we trust him in the playoffs yet? I just don’t trust either Jaden Ivey or Caris LeVert to stay healthy or as players. (Could they deal LeVert for Schroder?) I think they can get away with it though. Their shooting around Cunningham outside of Duncan Robinson and Tobias Harris is my biggest concern. There are big plays they could make with Lauri Markkanen (more on that later) being the big one but there are smaller moves they can make too. Maybe the Celtics would be willing to deal Sam Hauser. A three team trade that sends Hauser to Detroit, Haywood Highsmith and the Pistons 2026 first round pick top 10 protected to Boston and Caris LeVert and the Pelicans 2026 2nd round pick to the Nets. Whatever they decide to do, the Pistons should be in the market to add shooting.

Jazz

There is really only one guy the Jazz could trade right now and that is Lauri Markkanen, unless a team really wants Jusuf Nurkic or Kyle Anderson. There are a lot of layers to a deal. The first one is, what could a return be? Utah is going to want the farm, 4 picks, swaps, young players and salaries. Is Markkanen worth that? He has had an awesome season and I think really could lift a team like the Pistons but is trading everything for Markkanen worth it? There have been a lot of examples of deals that have gone poorly when trading all of that stuff and less of ones that have gone well. When you make a trade like that the goal is to win big. Lauri Markkanen is a really good player, a 7 footer who can dribble and shoot like that is rare but he is flawed. His defense lacks and he isn’t a high level passer. He also is owed $149 million over the next 3 seasons after this one. I am not sold on trading a ton of picks and swaps for him.

Other thoughts

How many picks do the Warriors have to trade in a Dillon Brooks for Jonathan Kuminga swap? I think that is a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides but is it 2 picks or 1 pick and a swap? Maybe they could trade their 2026 pick top 4 protected and their 2030 pick protected 5-20 (they owe 21-30 to the Wizards as a part of the Jordan Poole-Chris Paul trade in 2023) in a deal. Although this probably wouldn’t work since Draymond Green said Brooks is a ‘dynasty starts after you’ guy. However, Brooks impacts winning and the Warriors need to start winning. What does the star point guard trade market look like? Could LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant or Trae Young be traded? If so, what does their market look like? Which of those three players is the most desirable? I am not sure I would want any of them on my team if we are being honest. The Pelicans should tear their team down. Not sure what they could get for Zion but they could get a lot of Trey Murphy and Herb Jones. See what is out there for those guys and reset around Jeremiah Fears and Derrick Queen.

One sentence thoughts (I have lots of questions)

The Spurs should hold onto Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle for dear life, those guys are awesome. The Bulls should be answering the phones on a Coby White trade because I would not pay him if I were them. Are we sure Fred VanVleet is going to be willing to waive his no-trade clause he got for signing a 1-year deal? Could the Nets get anything for Michael Porter Jr.? The Timberwolves need a point guard, can I interest the Pelicans in Rob Dillingham for Jose Alvarado swap? I still think the Raptors should try and get out of the tax. Are we sure the Wizards are going to buyout Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum? Should the Nuggets try to trade Cam Johnson? Is there a trade that Cleveland can make to turn their season around? How much better does a Giannis trade really make the Knicks and are we sure it is worth it to them? How aggressive are the Heat going to be? Are the Pacers going to try and add a center? How does the Dereck Lively injury change the Anthony Davis trade landscape? (Also, the Mavs shouldn’t trade Daniel Gafford unless they are blown away.) Can Portland get someone to take one of Jrue Holiday or Jerami Grant? Boy, there are lots of questions as we enter trade season.