The Giannis trade options

Typically, I would write about the 4 NBA Cup quarterfinal knockout round games and make picks. However, on Wednesday ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Giannis Antetokounmpo is open to exploring a future outside Milwaukee. As a result, we need to cover that, what teams could get involved and what could a package look like?

Let’s start with the newest news that Antetokounmpo is going to be out 2-4 weeks with a calf strain according to Charania. This is a big loss for the Bucks, whose season has been in a tail spin for a couple of weeks now. They lost 8 of 9 games before having maybe their best win of the season on Wednesday night against the Pistons. With Antetokounmpo missing an extended period of time, this could get ugly quickly in Milwaukee which will only turn up the Giannis trade buzz. How did we get here?

In September of 2023, the Bucks made one last all-in move, one last desperate grasp to save the Giannis era in Milwaukee. They traded for Damian Lillard in a package centered around Jrue Holiday and draft picks. Lillard was supposed to make the Bucks offense better because they struggled at times with Holiday as their primary ballhandler. It failed as the Bucks lost in the first round in both seasons Lillard was on the roster before stretching his contract and waiving him this summer after he tore his Achilles in the playoffs, to sign Myles Turner. It was a last-ditch effort to win another title and keep Giannis in a Bucks jersey for life but it did not work out. As a result, Lillard is back in Portland rehabbing his torn Achilles while the Bucks owe Lillard and Turner $222 million combined over the next 5 seasons and Antetokounmpo seems to want out.

The first team we need to mention is the Knicks, who had discussions with the Bucks this summer about Giannis. It is tough to make a deal here because New York does not control most of their draft picks so they need to send players out the door. The deal I came up with is Giannis, Kyle Kuzma and Thanasis Antetokounmpo to New York for Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, Deuce McBride, the Wizard 2026 top 8 protected first round pick, unprotected first round pick swaps in 2030 and 2032 and future 2nd round picks. This deal cannot be completed until January 31st due to Mikal Bridges’ contract extension he signed on July 31st. I don’t know that I love this deal for either side. The Knicks would do this to pair Antetokounmpo and Jalen Brunson. The spacing would be rough with Giannis, Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson but their defense would level up. They would probably do this trade. I just think the Bucks could do better than this return for Giannis. No true first round picks or star young players in this deal and where does this Bucks roster go if you add KAT, Bridges and McBride to it while getting rid of Giannis? He could force his way to the Knicks but I think there are better deals out there.

The San Antonio Spurs are the next team we are going to talk about. There are a lot of different ways a deal could go with De’Aaron Fox’s contract and all the picks the Spurs own but you will see a lot of those offers. I went in a different direction. The Spurs get Giannis, Thanasis, Amir Coffey and Andre Jackson Jr. for Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, the better of the Hawks and Spurs pick in 2026 and the better of the Spurs and Celtics pick in 2028, top 1 protected. This deal can not be completed until December 15th due to stacking minimum salaries and Thanasis and Coffey signing new contracts. The Bucks get 2 picks but the real prizes are Castle and Harper, also Vassell to a lesser extent. If Harper and Castle are as good as it looks like they can be, this is maybe the best deal Milwaukee could be offered. Meanwhile the Spurs keep the Mavericks pick swap in 2030 and the Kings pick swap in 2031 while making a big three of Giannis, Fox and Victor Wembanyama that could be championship ready right now.

The Atlanta Hawks are the next team that everyone is talking about in terms of a Giannis trade. Bill Simmons had a deal he put together and I thought that was a good deal but I am going to use the parameters of that but make it a bit more complex. The Hawks get Giannis, Kuzma and Thanasis. The Bucks Trae Young, Jerami Grant, the Pelicans 2026 unprotected first round pick, the lesser of the Bucks and Pelicans 2027 first round pick, the best of the Bucks, Celtics and Blazers 2029 first round pick and they undo the 2030 pick swap with Portland that they gave the Blazers in the Lillard deal. The Blazers get Kristaps Porzingis and the Hawks 2030 and 2032 unprotected first round picks. Maybe this price is not high enough for Portland to cough up the 2029 pick but getting off of Grant’s money and 2 unprotected picks should be enough to give up that pick and undo one of the swaps, they’d still own a 2028 Bucks swap after this trade. The Hawks become the favorites in the east to me if this deal happens. Their defense would become absolutely relentless and they hold onto Jalen Johnson and Zaccharie Risacher in that deal. The Bucks get Young who can carry them for the next few years, the Pelicans pick this year, which would likely give them 2 lottery picks in this draft and a bunch of their own future picks back to reset in the post-Giannis era.

The last team I am including in this is the Rockets because I refuse to make an Oklahoma City trade. The deal is pretty straight forward, Giannis and Thanasis head to the Rockets for Alpren Sengun, Fred VanVleet, the best of the Suns, Nets and Rockets 2027 pick unprotected, the best of the Suns, Mavericks and Rockets 2029 pick unprotected and the Rockets 2030 and 2032 picks unprotected. For Houston this is a high price and one they may not be willing to pay but Sengun is a poor man's Giannis on offense who is an okay defender at best. Giannis would be a big upgrade in that spot. The Rockets have figured out their style and I don’t think Antetokounmpo changes that, in fact he would lift it and put them right in the Nuggets and Thunder conversations. Meanwhile, Milwaukee gets 2 likely lottery picks and 2 other future picks along with a real building block in Sengun and their point guard for at least next season in VanVleet.

The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade sweepstakes seem to be like they might be heating up soon and his new calf strain may even speed up that process. It seems to be a matter of when, not if, the Bucks trade the Greek Freak.