The 2025 Christmas slate

Christmas time is here and the NBA slate is stacked with 5 fun games, so I am going to dive into each of them and what to expect on the biggest day on the NBA regular season calendar.

Cavaliers at Knicks, Noon EST

The first game of the day is the only one that includes Eastern Conference teams. Coming into the season, it was projected that Cleveland and New York would be the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks are living up to the billing, I wrote about them last week. Cleveland, meanwhile, is not. At 16-14, the Cavaliers are 13th in the NBA in net rating at +1.8. For a team that won 64 games last season and was expected to win a lot of games this season it is a wild disappointment. These teams played on opening night, a 119-111 Knicks win that set the tone for both of these teams' seasons. Three point shooting is going to play a key in this game, these teams rank 4th (Cleveland) and 7th (New York) in three point rate this season. They are going to get them up. I think the Knicks get the win as they have been better than the Cavs have all season.

Spurs at Thunder, 2:30 EST

This is the third time these teams will play. They met in the NBA Cup semi-finals, a Spurs win, and they will meet on Tuesday night, the day of this posting. The Thunder are the best team in the league by a lot. They are +17.2 points per 100 possessions, 7.2 points better than 2nd place Denver with a record of 26-3 with a projected win pace of 73.5. An unbelievable team at every level and one that is likely to hoist Larry O in June. The Spurs are really good in their own right. 21-7, their net rating says they are a little worse than their record indicates but they were missing their best player for 12 of their 28 games thus far.​​ Their guards are awesome as well. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are proving to be all really high level players and will give OKC’s defense some problems over these next 2 games. I think that the Thunder will win but this is the game I am most excited to watch on Christmas Day.

Mavericks at Warriors, 5:00 EST

These are not elite teams by any means but this game will still be interesting to watch. Klay Thompson is back visiting his former team again for the first time this season, Anthony Davis is coming off of his best game of the season, even though they lost to the Pelicans and Cooper Flagg is starting to become what we thought his rookie season would look like. Dallas is not very good but there are still interesting storylines with their team. Meanwhile, the Warriors just cannot get out of their own way. At 15-15, Golden State hasn’t looked like the team they were post-Butler trade last season. Their net rating suggests they are better than this but this is not a world beating team that will make any real noise in the Western Conference Playoffs. They should win this game, again because Dallas is not very good, but it has been a frustrating season for Golden State.

Rockets at Lakers, 8:00 EST

The Rockets are really good. Kevin Durant has been an awesome addition and Reed Sheppard is a very good player off of their bench. The loss of Fred VanVleet is tough but Sheppard has made it a lot more bearable. Alpern Sengun and Amen Thompson are also just so good. They have the third best offense and the fourth best defense in the NBA. There is not much more to say other than this team is really good and is a legit title threat. The Lakers, on the other hand, are good but just not championship good. Luka is having an MVP caliber season, averaging 34.1 points, 8.8 assists and 8.6 rebounds per game, though his 32% from three is not great. The Lakers also cannot guard a soul when Doncic, LeBron and Austin Reaves share the floor together, giving up 120.9 points per 100 possessions in 132 minutes. That would be 29th in the NBA. Houston is better than the Lakers but this is LeBron James and Luka Doncic on Christmas so I am picking the Lakers to win a close one.

Timberwolves at Nuggets, 10:30 EST

Minnesota has really started to come on over the last few games. They have won 4 of their last 5 games, including a win over the Thunder on Friday. Anthony Edwards looks like Anthony Edwards averaging a career high 28.3 points per game. Julius Randle is also having a very good year and Rudy Gobert really brings their whole team together, they are 7.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off of it. Denver is also elite, as expected. Their bench is much improved, they are +1.1 per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench this season, which is a shocking stat to see considering where they typically live with Joker on the bench. Jamal Murray seems ready to make his first All-Star team as well, averaging 25 points per game along with 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds. If there is a challenger to OKC in the west, it is Denver. However, I think Minnesota wins this game, they always play Denver tough and I expect this game to be no different, as they are playing really good basketball right now.