What is going on with the Milwaukee Bucks?

When the Milwaukee Bucks traded for Damian Lillard, he was supposed to raise their ceiling and turn them into a title contender.  It didn’t work out, the Bucks flamed out in the first round in each season and Lillard got hurt both years.  After he tore his achilles during this past season's playoffs, Milwaukee waived and stretched the remaining $113 million left on Lillard’s contract and signed Myles Turner to a 4yr/$107 million deal to replace Brook Lopez, who signed with the Clippers.  It was a big time panic move as Milwaukee hopes to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo long term.   Will it work?

This isn’t the first time the Bucks have made a panic move to keep Antetokounmpo.  When they traded a bunch of draft picks for Jrue Holiday in 2021, that was coming off of an embarrassing 2nd round exit against the Heat and Antetokounmpo was extension eligible.  That was why they traded Eric Bledsoe, George Hill and a bunch of draft picks for Holiday.  The Lillard trade was a panic move when they traded Holiday and more picks to Portland to win the Damian Lillard sweepstakes.  Antetokounmpo was also extension eligible then too.  The Holiday move paid off with a title, the Lillard move did not.  Turner is a lesser player than both Holiday and Lillard so I don't think this move will pay off in the way the Bucks are hoping it will.  Yet, you can see their reasoning beyond just wanting to keep Giannis.  Brook Lopez is old and past his prime, he is a player that no longer can be the high-level stretch 5 next to Antetokounmpo anymore.  They needed to replace him and with Lillard set to miss all of next season, the Bucks decided to make this big move.  I wouldn’t have made it but there is a basketball reason to make this move, even if the process is bad.

The Bucks roster has a lot of frontcourt players and lacks talent in the backcourt.  Let’s start with the backcount.  They’ll likely start Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. with A.J. Green, Ryan Rollins, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris as the key reserves.  That is a lot of names but not a lot of high-level players.  Trent had a good year last year and is a player I like and Porter played well for the Bucks post-deadline.  Yet, I just don’t trust them as a starting back court.  They averaged a combined 21 points per game last season, that just isn’t good enough for your two best guards.  I do like A.J. Green as a three point specialist but he isn’t someone who can score off of the dribble.  The Bucks 4 highest paid players, and only players making over $10 million, are all frontcourt guys.  Antetokounmpo, Turner, Bobby Portis and Kyle Kuzma, not to mention Taurean Prince and Jericho Sims will also contribute this season.  Kuzma was a mess for the Bucks post trade from Washington but he is really important so he needs to be better, and Turner and Portis aren’t high level scorers.  The Bucks are going to need to have an elite defense because I just am not sure where the points are coming from.  How much can they rely on the A.J. Green and Giannis 2-man game to create points for them?  Where is the scoring coming from beyond Antetokounmpo?  Relying on Kuzma and KPJ is not something that I envy.  They also won’t have an elite defense.  Turner isn’t the great rim protector he once was and those guards aren’t stopping anyone at the point of attack.  It is going to be a grind for the Bucks to produce wins this season.

The good news for the Bucks is that the Eastern Conference is weak.  The Pacers and Celtics are both without their best player for, likely, the whole season.  The Hawks and Magic both got better but those teams aren’t as good as Boston or Indiana, two teams who won the conference the past 2 years.  That said, I think that both Atlanta and Orlando are better teams than the Bucks are.  I also think the Pistons are better than the Bucks.  This season is going to be a grind for Milwaukee, they just don't have the top end talent necessary to compete with Cleveland or New York, who are likely going to be the top 2 teams in the east next season.  Of course, they won’t be running from any smoke, they have the best player in the conference on their roster, but I just don’t think they are going to be able to compete for anything real next season.  With Giannis becoming eligible for a new deal next summer, things could get really interesting in Milwaukee really quickly.