2025-26 NBA overs and unders

Typically, I write a story detailing three teams I like and three I don’t.  I go into a few teams I like and don’t like and detail what about them I feel strongly about them either way.  This year, however, I am changing it up.  I am still going to talk about 6 teams, 3 positive and 3 negative, but I am going to give you their over or under for the regular season win total.

If you don’t know what that means, it is a way for people to bet on how good teams will be this year.  For example, the Lakers over/under is 49.5, if you think they’ll be better than that bet the over and if you think they’ll be worse than that, bet the under.  If you are going to bet, do it responsibly, don’t bet money you don’t have.  The hotline for a gambling addiction is 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-522-4700).  In New York, the number is 1-800-8-HOPENY.  

Let’s get into the teams, the odds are via FanDuel.

Cleveland Cavaliers: over 56.5

The Cavaliers won 64 games last year, I would be shocked if they lose 8 more games this year than they did a season ago.  They retained most of their roster from a season ago, they did swap out Ty Jerome and Isaac Okoro for Lonzo Ball but Jerome to Ball isn’t that much of a downgrade and Okoro became expendable when the team drafted Jaylon Tyson in the first round last year and traded for De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline.

The Cavaliers are a really good team and are widely considered one of the two top Eastern Conference contenders, along with the New York Knicks.  They bring back their entire starting 5 from a season ago, though Max Strus will miss the beginning of the season due to a Jones fracture in his foot.  The backcourt of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell is among the best in the NBA.  Mitchell is the best player on the team, the offense will go as he goes.  In spite of his numbers decreasing last year, he still finished 5th in MVP and made All-NBA first team.  Darius Garland is the guy Cleveland needs to step up.  Garland had a great year last year after an up and down 2023-24 that was impacted by a fractured jaw.  The playoffs haven’t been nice to Garland, so they’ll need better from him this time around.

For everything Mitchell is to Cleveland’s offense, Evan Mobley is to their defense.  The Defensive Player of the Year a season ago, Mobley will look to build on that this season.  Jarrett Allen is an interesting case study.  He is a really good player and the Cavs were 4.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than with him off the floor.  However, he wasn't on the floor at the end of a select number of big games last season.  The Cavs are going to learn this year if Allen is a part of their long term future.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be really good.  They’ll probably be the 1 seed in the Eastern Conference yet again.  Head coach Kenny Atkinson unlocked something in the regular season last year.  However, for Cleveland it is no longer about the regular season, it is about winning 4 playoff series.

Memphis Grizzlies: under 39.5

The Grizzlies made a huge trade this summer sending Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony (who was already bought out), four first round picks and a future pick swap.  I like this deal for Memphis, they need to retool and this gives them a pathway to doing so.  They drafted Cedric Cowherd with the 11th pick (after trading up) and re-signed Jaren Jackson Jr. to a massive contract extension.  Yet, the Bane loss leaves an already lacking roster lacking even more.

One thing that has haunted the Grizzlies over this run led by Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant is the injury bug and it has caught this Memphis team in a big way.  Jackson, Morant, Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke are all going to miss the beginning of the season.  Without their top three bigs and best twos players, it will be tough for Memphis to get off of the mat to start the season.  They are going to need a big KCP season but how can anyone count on that?  A season ago, at 34%, Cladwell-Pope had his worst three point shooting season since 2015-16.  Nikola Jokic and LeBron James aren’t feeding him on this Memphis team so I am not counting on a bounce back.

Memphis has some players I like.  Jaylen Wells is really good, he had an awesome rookie season, Ty Jerome broke out in Cleveland last year and should be awesome for Memphis and Santi Aldama is a floor spacing big who is such a plus for the Grizzlies offensively with his shooting.  I just don’t think Memphis has the top end talent to be a serious threat in the Western Conference.  The west is going to be a gauntlet and if you can’t compete at the top, you could be outside the playoffs.  I think the Grizzlies take a step back this season and win less than the projected 39.5 games.

Minnesota Timberwolves: over 49.5

Remember when the Grizzlies knocked the Timberwolves out of the 2022 first round?  The Minnesota Timberwolves have been to the conference in each of the past 2 seasons but were swiftly knocked out in 5 games both times.  Last season, the Timberwolves went 49-33 but started 17-17 over the first 34 games of the season.  Over the last 48, they were 32-16, which is a win pace of 55 games for the season.  The playoffs proved that was real.  It took time for them to get used to playing with Julius Randle after the big Karl-Anthony Towns trade but when they did, they became a machine and I think that will carry over.

Minnesota will go as far as Anthony Edwards takes them.  He is the hub of their offense and is a very good defender.  The first round against the Lakers jumped out as an ‘oh this guy is here’ moment.  Sure, we all knew Edwards was a great player but I think he took a leap to the next level of superstar, I think he entered the top class of superstars in the league.  He is the best 2-guard in the NBA.  I thought his floor vision and passing took the biggest leap last season.  Mix that with the pull up three, ability to get to any spot he wants and high level defense, this is a guy who you can build a championship team around.

The loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a big one for Minnesota, he became a key piece to their team in the playoffs last year but I think they can fill that void.  Rob Dillingham will need to step up and they will give him the opportunity to do so but Donte DiVincenzo also needs to play better than he did at times last season.  Rudy Gobert isn’t the defender he once was but he is still really good on that end and along with his offensive rebounding he is still a very good player.  If Randle meshes as well as he did at the end of last season, I think Minnesota is a real threat in the Western Conference and should win over 50 games.

Detroit Pistons: under 46.5

The Pistons were one of the most young exciting teams in the NBA last season.  After a 14 win season in 2023-24, the Pistons won 44 games last season, a 30 win improvement!  J.B. Bickerstaff did a great job with the roster that President of Basketball Operations Trajan Langdon gave him.  The ascension of Cade Cunningham was awesome, he showed everyone just how great of a player he is and how lucky the Pistons are to have him.

Their summer wasn’t great but it also wasn’t bad.  They’ll miss Malik Beasley, Duncan Robinson will likely present a downgrade for the Pistons.  They signed Caris LeVert away from the Hawks but he brings more shot creation to the table than shooting.  With Cunningham and Jaden Ivey already in the starting 5, LeVert will likely come off of the bench. This is a team that has a lot of young talent on it.

Ivey returns from a season ending injury in January last year, they need him to take a leap with the hope that his three pointer will carry over from last year.  A 41% three point shooter overall, Ivey’s 45% on catch and shoot looks need to be replicated because some of the Pistons other young players have struggled in that regard.  Ausar Thompson needs to find his shot.  The defense is elite and I think his ability to play off of the bounce will develop, he just needs to make threes.  Same goes for Ron Holland, though he is worse than Thompson is in those other area’s.  I like their centers, Jalen Duran and Isaiah Stewart compliment each other well.

My issue with Detroit is I just think that number is too big.  The Celtics and Pacers missing their best player inflates that number but I think the Hawks and Magic are better than the Pistons are.  Cunningham is better than any player those other teams have but I don’t think that the Pistons have the horses behind Cunningham that Orlando and Atlanta have.  The Pistons will be good and should make the playoffs, I just think that 47 wins is a stretch.

Washington Wizards: over 20.5

This is a very gross one because of how much of a grind each win will be.  We are going to need to fight every game.  The Wizards are not going to be good and will probably move off of C.J. McCollum and Khris Middleton as the season progresses, whether it’s via trade or buyout, and that will hurt but 20 wins is very possible.  They are, however, going to be really bad and have been under this number in each of the past 2 seasons, winning 15 games and 18 games.

I like a lot of the players they have.  Middleton and McCollum are good veterans to help out their young guys and McCollum is still a 20 point per game scorer.  Middleton didn’t play very well post trade to the Wizards but his minutes should increase and I don’t think he will shoot 41% from the field and 28% from three again this season.  These are still two quality NBA players that will help the Wizards.

I also think their young guys are ready to take a leap.  Bub Carrington had a very good rookie year and will hopefully take a leap entering year 2.  I am a huge Bilal Coulibaly fan, he didn’t shoot the three well last year but his playmaking, defense and rebounding all progressed well and will look to continue that way this season.  Alex Sarr was the number 2 pick in the draft, year 1 had its struggles and so will year 2 but I expect to see more from him this season.  His potential as a shot blocker moves the needle for me.  Tre Johnson was an awesome player at Texas and should slide into what Washington is building well.  The Wizards are building an interesting young core and I hope to see some better results this year.

The final reason I like this over is because they play in the Eastern Conference.  The Hornets are at 27.5, I just don’t think the Wizards are 7 games worse than Charlotte is.  I like the way the Wizards have rebuilt their team and I think we will see a small bump in wins this year, even if they will still be at the top of the lottery.

Toronto Raptors: under 38.5

I bought into the Raptors last year and I won’t do it again.  Brandon Ingram is a great player and acquiring great players is never a bad thing.  He just doesn’t take enough threes and now on this team he needs to take those catch and shoot threes.  The sample was small last year but 39% of Ingram’s shots were pull up two pointers, that is 4th in the league last year amongst players who took at least 5 two point pull ups.  On a team with shaky spacing already, how does he fit?

Injuries played a large part in the Raptors struggles last year and history tells us a lot of that should be better this season but I also think they lack overall talent off of the bench.  Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter, Ochai Agbaji, Jamal Shead and Jonathan Mogbo are all names but how good are they?  What is rookie Collin Murray-Boyles going to be in the NBA? At 6’7” a small ball 5 seems unlikely but that is what he did in college.  He needs to find his place in the league and that may take some time.

I also don’t like the way their starting 5 fits together.  Immanuel Quickley, R.J. Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are a 5 man unit with a lot of talent but their spacing worries me.  Ingram, Barnes, Barrett and Quickley are all at their best with the basketball and Poeltl isn’t a floor spacing 5.  That look could be clunky on offense.

This is a team that is going to rely on its defense.  One reason to like Toronto is the way they finished last season as they had the best defense in the league last March and April.  March and April can be flukey though so how much will that translate to this year?  I just don’t think this team fits together.  They don’t have enough spacing and shooting and I am worried this will be a ‘your turn, my turn’ type of offense.  Also look for them to make a trade at the deadline to duck the tax since they are currently over it, for some bizarre reason.