The Los Angeles Lakers are good, just not championship good

The Los Angeles Lakers were given a gift last February when the Dallas Mavericks traded them Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris in exchange for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 unprotected first round pick.  It was a life line to a team that was looking at an uncertain future.  They entered the playoffs as the third seed in Western Conference, prepared to make a run before they were swiftly eliminated by the Minnesota Timberwolves in 5 games.  LeBron had a soft trade request this summer but he remains a Laker.  Is the roster good enough for the Lakers to make a run?

This offseason, the Lakers went out with a glaring need at center.  As a result, they went out and signed… Deandre Ayton.  Ah, okay.  Ayton is coming off of two disappointing seasons with the Portland Trail Blazers, which led to his contract being bought out by the team.  He is going to give the Lakers some scoring but it is important he buys in as a screen setter for James and Doncic, along with Austin Reaves, and as a rim protector.  The biggest issue for Ayton in Portland was his effort.  That can’t be a problem this year because he needs a new contract and is playing with 2 of the best players in the league.  The chance will start to disappear for Ayton if he continues to not try hard.

The Lakers also made other moves.  Let’s start with the departure of Dorian Finney-Smith.  Acquired in December, DFS became one of the most important players on the Lakers during the playoffs last season, his shooting and defense became keys for Los Angeles and they are going to miss him.  Their goal is to recreate Finney-Smith in the aggregate.  As a result, they signed Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart as free agents.  Smart is going to become a key piece for the Lakers.  The 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year has been almost forgotten the last 2 years.  After the big trade out of Boston, Smart has spent time with the Grizzlies and Wizards the last 2 years.  He played just 54 games, averaging 11.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists on 41% from the field and 33% from three.  He just hasn’t been the same player he once was, as the defense is slipping as well.  Jake LaRavia is a shaky defender but a good shooter, shooting 42% from three last season.  I think he has a chance to provide real minutes for the Lakers this season.  Which is something Los Angeles is going to need.

I thought the Lakers miscalculated the offseason.  Why are they not pushing all their chips into the middle of the table?  What are the odds they will find a better running mate for Doncic than LeBron James, even at his advanced age?  A lot of what was talked about this summer for the Lakers was that the Doncic trade was about the future, not the present.  Sure, Doncic should be really good for a long time but that isn’t promised.  Luka led a team through the very same Western Conference they are in, just last year, and LeBron is going to be 41 by the time the playoffs come around.  The window is closing, go win the title now!  I disagreed with the Lakers decision to not go all the way in on this group.

The Lakers have two of the best players in the league at the top of their roster, yes even at 40, LeBron remains one of the best in the world.  Beyond that you have Austin Reaves as the number 3 option.  Reaves is a really good player, averaging 20.2 points, 5.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game last season.  Reaves is very important to the Lakers offense but there are real questions to their defense with James, Doncic and Reaves on the floor.  The Lakers defensive rating with those three guys during the regular season was 121.3 in 423 minutes.  In their first round loss, the defensive rating with those three guys on the floor was 122.7.  That has to get better this season or else the Lakers will not be able to win the Western Conference or an NBA championship. 

Rui Hachimura will be the Lakers 5th starter with what should be Doncic, James, Reaves and Ayton.  Hachimura is a good player, averaging 13.1 points and 5.0 rebounds per game last season, Los Angeles needs his size and scoring.  Rui played a big role on last year’s team and will play a big role on this year’s team.  One guy who is going to see his role increased is Maxi Kleber.  After coming over in the Doncic trade last season, Kleber played one (1) game for the Lakers last season, the game they were eliminated.  They really like his floor spacing, a career 35% three point shooter, Kleber shot just 27% last season.  If he shoots it like that again, he won’t remain in JJ Redick’s rotation.  2024 first round pick Dalton Knecht is a guy L.A. would love to have a breakout season.  Last season, Knecht played in 78 games, averaging 9.1 points on 46% from the field and 38% from three.  His summer league was a mess and his confidence was shot after his trade to Charlotte for Mark Williams fell through.  The Lakers are hoping for a Knecht breakout but I am not counting on it.

The last three guys I want to mention are Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt and Jaxson Hayes.  Vincent is the 3rd or 4th guard for the Lakers, pending how much LeBron plays point guard.  After a disappointing year 1 with L.A., Vincent had a solid season last year, averaging 6.4 points and 1.4 assists per game while shooting 40% from the field and 35% from three.  I think he matters for spacing and secondary creation off of the bench.  Vanderbilt is an interesting case study for the Lakers.  His defense is vital during the regular season, his effort alone every night is something the Lakers need but his lack of shooting makes him unplayable during the playoffs.  He also has caught the injury bug a lot since being traded to Los Angeles, playing in just 65 games the last 2 seasons.  Jaxson Hayes was the Lakers starting center post-Doncic trade.  It went okay until the playoffs where the Timberwolves bullied him off of the court.  I think he will provide regular season minutes but big playoff minutes are something we learned won’t happen.

The Lakers are one of the better teams in the west and one I think can make a real run, the Fred VanVleet injury helps them with that.  I don’t think they are as good as Denver or Oklahoma City but in the next tier down with the Rockets, Warriors, Clippers and Timberwolves.  If you told me the Lakers were a first round exit I wouldn’t be shocked but if you told me they made a Western Conference Finals run, I wouldn’t be shocked.  Even the Finals aren’t off of the table for this team, though that would shock me a little bit.  The point is that the Lakers have a chance to be really good.  Health will be something to keep an eye on, at 41 for the playoffs, LeBron is going to be beaten up this season.  I just don’t think they have the horse to win the title right now, which to me is a miscalculation by the front office.