2026-27 NBA season picks and preview
Western Conference Standings
Projected starting 5: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
The Thunder have been the west’s top seed the past 2 years and even with their subtractions, they should be that once again. Health is going to go a long way in determining how good this team is. They run through SGA who should have another big year.
Spurs
Projected starting 5: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Victor Wembanyama
The Spurs represented the west in the Finals last year and they should be even better this year. This starting 5 played a huge part in flipping their season so I expect them to run it back even with the Tobias Harris addition. This is a loaded roster led by Wemby.
Rockets
Projected starting 5: Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun
You can say this for every team but the health of the Rockets is going to be a big part of what Houston is this year. VanVleet and Steven Adams return after missing most or all of last year and Durant is 38 years old. Their defense and offensive rebounding are going to be big advantages for them.
Nuggets
Projected starting 5: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
Never doubt Nikola Jokic but I think this team is not very good. Murray and Jokic are always good for regular season wins but Aaron Gordon’s health and a lack of athleticism have this team as a first round exit in my book. That said, they’ll win enough regular season games to be a top 4 seed.
Projected starting 5: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga, Rudy Gobert
I think the Wolves are the 3rd best team in the west but I can’t trust them in the regular season again. The Ball and Edwards back court raises this teams ceiling in a real way and if I had to pick a team to invade the Spurs-OKC west finals, I’d pick the Wolves. I do worry about staring Jonathan Kuminga
Projected starting 5: Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, Jake LaRavia, Walker Kessler
The 3-6 seeds in the west are so interchangeable and if Luka rose this team to the 3rd seed I wouldn’t be shocked. I just think the loss of LeBron looms really large on this team because they’ll miss his secondary creation. Kessler is a big question mark to me and will determine what this team is. Also, I have no idea who their 5th starter is going to be.
Mavericks
Projected starting 5: Kyrie Irving, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford
A Kyrie and Flagg duo is a really good starting point for any team. Dallas is also pretty deep with guys like Christie, Washington and Naji Marshall around those guys and should be a really fun watch this year. Dereck Lively II’s injury looms large as Dallas does need to get him back.
Suns
Projected starting 5: Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges, Khaman Maluach
I don’t like this team but they’ll have another solid season. There is a pretty defined ceiling on this team and trading their 2033 pick for Miles Bridges was a terrible trade. They sent all their picks out for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal so the Suns remain stuck but they’ll be a fringe playoff team.
Jazz
Projected starting 5: Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jusuf Nurkic
Utah’s offense is going to be dynamic, they have too many good players for that not to be the case. However, the defense and center room will hold this team back. Trading Walker Kessler was a good move long term but if they had him this year, the Jazz would be much better. Also, missing Nurkic early hurts them.
Trail Blazers
Projected starting 5: Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan
A Portland regression may not seem to make a lot of sense, I just don’t see the pathway to the Lillard-Morant back court. If I’m really wrong about a team, it may very well be this one but I just think at this point, I struggle to see how the backcourt meshes.
Grizzlies
Projected starting 5: Ty Jerome, Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, Cameron Boozer, Zach Edey
Memphis will challenge for the play-in and might even make it. However, I think they remain a bit behind on the teams ahead of them. The front court will decide the season, can Edey stay on the court and how good is Boozer day one? The guards worry me, they are going to need a big Ty Jerome season.
Warriors
Projected starting 5: Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green
Golden State has too much riding on the health of Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis to have a good team this year. This team is old and doesn’t have enough talent on it. It could be a long season for Steph Curry as he winds down his career.
Pelicans
Projected starting 5: Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Zion Williamson, Yves Missi
The Pelicans have some good players but they make no sense. Zion was healthy last year and they still stunk. They are 4th in the NBA in percentage of returning minutes from last year. Don’t worry, Jamahl Mosley will save the day!
Projected starting 5: Darius Garland, Brandon Ingram, Derrick Jones Jr., Rui Hachimura, Brook Lopez
Ingram has a partially torn Achilles, Max Strus had a partial tear of the plantar fascia in his right foot and Bradley Beal (yes, he is still a Clipper) has right knee inflammation. The Clippers are likely to be bad anyways but these injuries certainly are not helping!
Kings
Projected starting 5: Darius Acuff Jr., Zach LaVine, De’Andre Hunter, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis
The Acuff-Sabonis pick and roll will be fun and Acuff could be really good. Other than that, the Kings are going to be brutal this year.
Eastern Conference Standings
Projected starting 5: Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Mitchell Robinson
I think Boston is really good. Their defense should be among the top 2 or 3 in the league and they are going to pound the offensive glass. I also wonder if people have forgotten how good Jayson Tatum is. The Celtics have a formula that gives them a really high floor in the regular season and they have a real chance to be the top seed. Also, Boston needs to start Pritchard!
Projected starting 5: Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns
The champs are back and really good. There are worries about contracts but the Knicks are really good with some good depth. However, the starting 5 is so good that this team shouldn’t miss a beat in the regular season or the playoffs. The Knicks are running back most of their title team and will be right in the thick of the championship mix again.
Projected starting 5: Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl
I think Toronto is just really good. Kawhi Leonard was 1 of the 10 best players in the league last year and Scottie Barnes proved that he is one of the best in the league as well in the playoffs. Center is a worry but this team won a lot of games last year and added Kawhi Leonard, they are very good.
Projected starting 5: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Ivica Zubac
Two preseason games and I am all the way back in on the Indiana Pacers. Tyrese Haliburton looks really good coming off the Achillies tear and this team goes as he goes. Zubac is a good addition at center, he isn’t the spacer Myles Turner is but he is a significantly better player. The Pacers might be all the way back.
Projected starting 5: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Joel Embiid
The ceiling is very high for the Sixers but I also think the floor is pretty low. Adding Brown and James are obviously great additions but I worry about this team. Joel Embiid can’t stay on the court and the defense is very reliant on him. The Sixers will be able to score, I am not sure they can guard enough to win the east.
Pistons
Projected starting 5: Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins, Jalen Duren
Duren is signed but I think Detroit got worse this summer. They’re defense and effort gives them a high floor but I don’t think this team has enough secondary creation around Cunningham. I hated replacing Tobias Harris with Collins as Harris was the 2nd option on a team that lacked scoring and the Pistons didn’t replace him.
Projected starting 5: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo
The Heat have the best player in the conference which is why I don’t love them at 7. However, the lack of ball handling on the bench behind Mitchell and Antetokounmpo worries me as does the spacing of their frontcourt. Their defense should be elite which is another reason to believe in Miami.
Cavaliers
Projected starting 5: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Someone in the east is going to take a step back and needs to be 8th, I think the Cavaliers will be that team. This team is good but so are all of the other teams and full transparency, I don’t know how good the Cavs really are. I bought into Cleveland last year (they were my preseason Finals pick) and will not be doing the same this year.
Magic
Projected starting 5: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
The Magic need to guard better than they did last year to have any shot at being a playoff team this year. While I think they will do that, I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs. The Banchero-Wagner fit remains weird and you have to wonder what the future holds for that duo.
Hawks
Projected starting 5: CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu
The Hawks beat the Knicks twice in the playoffs last year, hang the banner! Atlanta got hot at the end of last season, earning the 6th seed in a much weaker Eastern Conference. I don’t think they’ll be in the same spot this year and will miss the playoffs.
Wizards
Projected starting 5: Trae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis
There is a world where the Wizards are just really good. Where Dybantsa is an elite player on day 1, AD stays healthy and Trae Young’s playmaking makes Washington really good. With that said, in this Eastern Conference, I am not drinking the Wizards Kool-Aid quite yet.
Hornets
Projected starting 5: Coby White, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Naz Reid, Moussa Diabate
This is my “LaMelo Ball was so important to the Hornets offense and I am not sure Miller and Knueppel are ready to replace that” spot for Charlotte. This team is really deep but without Ball, there is a lot on the plate of Miller and Knueppel and I’d like to see it before I buy in on it.
Bulls
Projected starting 5: Josh Giddey, Norman Powell, Matas Buzelis, Caleb Wilson, Nic Claxton
Caleb Wilson is so good and he and Buzelis should be a very fun duo for years to come. Giddey is a great guard to be setting them up in transition and in the half court to get them going. The spacing on this team is worrisome to me and I don’t think that the Bulls duo is quite ready to be a good team.
Nets
Projected starting 5: Egor Demin, Keon Ellis, Michael Porter Jr., Julius Randle, Day’Ron Sharpe
Spoiler alert, the Nets are bad. However, I don’t think they are as bad as everyone else does. Jordi Fernandez is a very good coach and the duo of Porter Jr. and Randle should be good enough for them to steal some wins. A lot is riding on the young guards of Demin and Mikel Brown Jr.
Bucks
Projected starting 5: Tyler Herro, Ryan Rollins, Jamie Jaquez Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner
I wrote about the Bucks last week in my over/unders blog. The point being, I think this is the worst team in the league.
Regular Season Awards
MVP: Victor Wembanyama
Sorry to Victor but I never get this pick right. SGA and Jokic have been at the forefront of the MVP conversation in recent years but I think we get a new one this year. Wembanyama is one of the best players in the league and the Spurs are going to be one of the best teams in the league this year. He is going to win this award eventually, why not this year?
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer
This is a crowded class for Rookie of the Year but I think Boozer is the most pro ready player in the class and is going to have the biggest opportunity to win this award. As I wrote last week, I like this Memphis team, they are really deep and have a really good front court. Boozer has a chance to be their best player on a solid team.
Sixth Man of the Year: Ajay Mitchell
A guard who scores a lot off of the bench is a pretty good bet to win Sixth Man of the Year and that is what Mitchell is. He broke out last year as Jalen Williams missed most of the season and I expect him to follow that up with another big season this year. He was especially good in the playoffs and will be a key part of the OKC bench minutes.
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
As long as he is eligible, Wemby is probably going to win this award and I’ll pick him to do so every year. The way he impacts the game on that end of the floor is always going to change the game. If he is going to win the MVP, his defense will be a big part of that.
Most Improved Player: Amen Thompson
I have no idea who to pick for this award. I landed on Thompson because I think he will take the leap to become the Rockets 2nd best player by having a big season. His passing and playmaking should improve with Fred VanVleet returning and he has a chance to average 20 or more points per game.
Playoff Picks
Western Conference Finals
Thunder over Spurs in 7 games
A rematch in the Western Conference Finals feels inevitable. Weird things happen, especially in recent years so it isn’t promised but these are the two clear favorites in the conference. I picked the Spurs to beat the Thunder last year at the start of that series and they did, this time I think OKC is better. Wemby is a problem for everyone and that proved to be the case for Chet Holmgren but getting Jalen Williams back is so big for this team. He’s their 2nd best player and last May’s series going 7 without Williams for most of it, has me shift my pick to OKC.
Eastern Conference Finals
Knicks over Celtics in 6 games
I think Boston has a higher playoff ceiling than other people seem to. Jayson Tatum is, if not top 5, just outside of it and their defense and offensive rebounding are going to have them in the thick of the title mix. However, I can’t pick against the champs. The Knicks blew through the playoffs last year to win the title. The league is better and the east is much better so it will be harder this year but New York is still the cream of the crop. Jalen Brunson proved that he is as good as any player in the league and that as long as he is a Knick, New York will be in the hunt.
NBA Finals
Thunder over Knicks in 6 games
With that said, however, it is the Thunder I am picking to win the title. This is the first time since the 2022-23 season I’m not picking a repeat champion and I have never gotten this pick right so the Thunder are doomed. Yet, I just think that the Thunder are too good to not pick to win this. I really think that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the world and getting Jalen Williams back is so important, it can’t be overstated. His impact on both sides of the court is so important to them. I know they lost some guys but the guys they lost are very replaceable. This OKC team is just too good for me to pick against them.
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