The Thunder and the path to climbing the mountain once again

The 2025 NBA champions looked like they may cruise to back to back titles last season before injuries derailed their season and they were knocked out of the Conference Finals by the San Antonio Spurs. This summer, the Oklahoma City Thunder worked to get under the 2nd apron while preserving their big 3 of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren and that is what they did. With the loss of depth, the health of the team is more prevalent than ever. 

Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren each signed deals that will pay them each over $41 million this season, which sent the Thunder’s payroll soaring over the 2nd apron. With Gilgeous-Alexander’s 4yr/$271 million deal not kicking in until next season, OKC knew it would be irresponsible to be over the apron this season. As a result, they got to work sending Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort out the door acquiring 7 2nd round picks and no new salaries. They were able to get under the apron all while re-signing Kenrich Williams and signing Nuggets forward Spencer Jones to a 2yr/$12 million offer sheet, that Denver matched and put them over the 2nd apron. In the draft the Thunder selected Michigan center Aday Mara with the 12th pick in the draft, which was a strange pick because they also re-signed Isaiah Hartenstein. However, this indicates that OKC is preparing to move off of Hartenstein’s money at some point and want to get the replacement in house while I-Hart is still on the team.

If you compare this season’s roster to last season’s roster, it would be fair to argue that Oklahoma City got worse. Losing 3 valuable players in Dort, Wiggins and Joe and not getting any replacements back is a blow. However, that doesn’t take into account the return of J-Dub. Jalen Williams spent most of last season injured, he played in just 33 regular season games and just 5 playoff games. They missed him more than people acknowledged last year because they swept their way to the Conference Finals and went to 7 games against the Spurs, a series in which Williams only played 17 minutes after Game 1. Going back to the 2025 playoffs, Williams was such an important part to the 2025 title, as he averaged 21.7 points per game including a 40 point game in OKC’s Game 5 win in the Finals. Williams’ health is one of the biggest factors in the Thunder’s hopes of getting a 2nd ring.

The subtractions of Dort, Joe and Wiggins also shouldn’t sting so badly because the Thunder have ample depth to replace those guys on the wing. Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain showed last year that they are ready to step into big roles next season and had already jumped Wiggins and Joe on the depth chart and, if it wasn’t for Mark Daigneault’s love of him, probably should have jumped Dort as well. Mitchell played a big role in why, for most of the season, the Thunder didn’t feel the loss of Williams. His 15.1 points per game in the playoffs were huge for the Thunder and getting SGA the help he needed around him. The shooting of McCain and Mitchell are going to be wildly important to this team as well because it felt like they were short a shooter last season and they traded away Isaiah Joe, who shot 42% from three last season. Although, 16th overall pick Bennett Stritz shot 37% from three in college so he will help fill that void as well.

Somehow we have gotten to this point without discussing the back to back MVP and the best player in the world. Shai Gilgous-Alexander is the lifeblood of the Thunder. Obviously, he is the key, without him they aren’t a contender. They probably make the playoffs but they aren’t winning a championship and probably aren’t even winning a round. His 30 points per game are a staple to their team and without them, they would be dead on arrival. They also need better play from Chet Holmgren than what they got in the Conference Finals when he was played off the floor by Victor Wembanyama and people started to wonder if the Thunder should trade Holmgren. His rim protection and spacing are so important to their team, they need him to remain on the floor in the biggest moments. They need him to be better in the playoffs than he was a season ago.

If there is one thing the Thunder can always fall back on, it is their defense. It is the ultimate floor raiser for them. No matter which of their stars are on the court, the Thunder will always be able to fall back on the best defense in the NBA. Over the past 2 seasons, they have had defensive ratings of 107.4 in 2024-25 and 107.3 in 2025-26, both were the best marks in the NBA and both blew away the league averages which were 114.8 in 2024-25 and 115.9 in 2025-26. It is why they were able to make a deep playoff run last year without their 2nd best player for most of it (although having the best player in the world did not hurt). The Thunder are going to be awesome this year and probably have the best record in the NBA because they have the best player in the world and the best defense in the league and those are 2 things they can always fall back on.

The Thunder lost 3 key pieces to their team this summer and are relying on internal guys to fill their spots. If you compare the rosters, you could argue that this team is worse. However, with context taken in, I think the Thunder are probably better this year than they were a season ago. They’ll need better health than they had a year ago but assuming they are able to be healthy, the Thunder are one of the favorites to win the title this season.