The Miami Heat have a new look

When the Miami Heat traded Jimmy Butler, there was an uncertainty around who the new face of the franchise was going to be. Could they build a winner around Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro? This summer, the Heat got the answer that they had been looking for when they traded for Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Miami has rebuilt their team around Antetokounmpo and Adebayo, so what will it look like?

The summer was a good one for Miami, they did acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo, but I also liked the additions of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Klay Thompson. The Heat needed shooting and those two guys are both elite shooters. Although his 38% last season doesn’t show it, I still think Klay Thompson is a top flight shooter in the NBA. The way he comes off pin-down screens and makes threes off of those screens is such a rare skill and he showed that he can still do it. The defense is all but gone but I still think Klay Thompson is a good player who will help Miami. Hardaway Jr. isn’t the movement shooter that Thompson is but he shot 41% from three last year for the Nuggets and he should have some of the same looks he has this year that he had a year ago, though neither Antetokounmpo or Adebayo are the passers that Nikola Jokic is. Those are two good players who will help Miami this year. Bobby Portis came in the Giannis trade, he has lost a step over the past few years but he will be the primary backup center. Miami also signed Nick Richards to also eat backup center minutes so the centers behind Adebayo are worth worrying about. This is an improved roster but the loss of depth is a concern.

Tyler Herro, Kal’el Ware, Jamie Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakucionis all went out in the Giannis trade and Norman Powell left as a free agent to go to the Bulls. The starting 5 will be Davion Mitchell, Hardaway Jr. or Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Antetokounmpo and Adebayo. That will be a good unit and an elite defensive unit. The bench includes the other of Klay or THJ, Pelle Larsson, Portis, Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith. The lack of a backup point guard is the primary concern I have for this team. I like Mitchell, he has played really well over the past year and a half since Miami acquired him but the only true point guard on the roster being Davion Mitchell could be a problem. A lot of this can be seen by the fact that Miami gave Nikola Jovic a 4yr/$60 million contract extension last summer and he couldn’t get off Erik Spoelstra’s bench for most of the season. This is a good team that has some concerning offensive flaws.

I think the lack of a true lead guard is a big part of Miami’s shaky offensive outlook. Mitchell ranked in the 51st percentile last year in assist percentage for point guard at 28.6%. Not a bad number but not one that a true leader guard has. This benefits Miami because they won’t have to change their play style too much without Mitchell. Giannis and Bam are going to have the ball in their hands a lot this season. Adebayo’s usage rate was in the 91st percentile for big men last year (24.4%) while Antetokounmpo led all big men in usage rate last season at 37.1%. They are going to play offense through their bigs. One worry of that is the lack of shooters that both Antetokounmpo and Adebayo are, Bam shot 32% and Giannis 33% from beyond the arc last season. They’re two man game could be one the Heat use but Miami was dead last in pick and roll percentage last year, running pick and roll on 5.6% of their possessions, dead last in the NBA. In fact, the Spurs, who were 29th, ran pick and roll on 12.2 of their possessions, more than double of what the Heat did. The lack of spacing is a big concern and Miami will struggle to score at times but Erik Spoelstra has shown a willingness to adapt in years past and I am sure he will do the same this year. However, it is the defensive side of the court where Miami will be at their best this season.

A big man duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo is the recipe for a really good defense. Add in Mitchell, Wiggins and Larsson and Miami’s defense should be one of the best in the NBA. One area I think Miami needs to improve is their defensive turnover percentage, they need to create more turnovers. They were 17th in opponent turnover percentage last year at 14.5%, they should want to get that number into or just outside the top 10 next season. There really isn’t a ton to say about this Miami defense. They’ll be able to play any style of defense they want and will have really good results no matter what. When you have a big man duo of two of the most versatile bigs in the NBA, that is what you can do.

Miami is 1 of 8 teams in the east that I think is legitimately good. In no order, the Knicks, Celtics, Sixers, Raptors, Cavaliers, Pistons, Pacers and Heat make up the top 8 with the Magic, Hornets and Hawks being the tier below. I’d be surprised if Miami missed the playoffs without a major injury. Their top end talent and defense is too good for them to be a bad team. I still think there is a big gap on what they could be because I could see them as a first round exit or an Eastern Conference Finalist. However, I don’t think this is a championship level roster. They don’t have the guard play or shooting needed around Giannis and Bam to elevate them to the level of the Knicks, Spurs or Thunder. The Miami Heat are very good and should be a fun team to watch this year but come April and May, I don’t think they yet have the pieces to compete with what the best of the league has to offer.