A Giannis Antetokounmpo trade seems imminent

We have once again hit the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors and there is a whole new market. We have been talking about an Antetokounmpo trade on and off for 5 years now and non-stop for the last 2 years but it seems that this time the Bucks really are serious about moving him. The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are the front runners but I am sure there are mystery teams that will get involved as well.

Let’s start with Miami because they still seem like the favorite. The very best non-Bam Adebayo offer Miami has is Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, Jamie Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, Pelle Larsson, the 13th pick, 2 future first round picks and 2 future pick swaps for Giannis and Kyle Kuzma. I don’t think Miami has made that offer or will ever make that offer but it is the best they can offer. In fact, I don’t think Milwaukee is going to like any offer that Miami makes at all. I think a deal could be Antetokounmpo and Gary Harris for Herro, Jaquez, Ware, Nikola Jovic, 13, 2 future first round picks and a pick swap. What does that offer do for Milwaukee? They don’t value Herro and they shouldn’t. He needs a new contract and is a minus-defender, a fine passer but not anything special and a good scorer but not a great one. He isn’t someone you can build a team around. Jovic had a disaster season and is about to have his 4yr/$62.4 million deal kick in, why would the Bucks want him? Jaquez and Ware are good but nothing special and 3 picks really isn’t that many picks, even if one is in the lottery. If the Bucks liked the Heat offer, this deal would already be done. Instead we continue to wait because Milwaukee clearly doesn’t like the Miami offer and I don’t blame them.

The Boston Celtics are the other team who the Bucks have been talking to and I think they probably have the best package. Let’s put it this way, if you had Jaylen Brown and were offered the 2nd Miami package I listed, would you take it for him? A Boston deal isn’t realistic without including Brown due to the 2nd apron and the way the Celtics would be limited in their team building. Brown plus first round picks in 2027 and 2031 feels like a fair deal for both sides. The Bucks would then likely want to find a third team for Brown, the Portland Trail Blazers and Atlanta Hawks seem like the most likely but there are other options too. Portland stands out because they can send Milwaukee their own picks back in 2028, 2029 and 2030 in a deal while the Hawks have the 8th pick and other guys they can send (I wrote a Hawks offer last month). I think that is a better deal for the Bucks to take but we will see if Boston even offers it.

If winning is Giannis’ main objection, which I’m sure it is, Boston is the place he should want to land. The Celtics had a disappointing end of the season but they won 57 regular season games in a year where they were missing Jayson Tatum for most of it. Insert Antetokounmpo in Brown’s spot and that is two top 10 players immediately placed in your starting 5 surrounded by a good supporting cast headlined by Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, they would need to add another center but they can do that. A Tatum-Antetokounmpo two-man game would be unstoppable as well. You can do it either way as both are really high level screeners and both are really high level ball-handlers. There is also this idea that Giannis would change the way the Celtics play and I just think that’s a narrow minded way of thinking. Antetokounmpo is elite at creating advantages in the halfcourt and that is what Celtics Coach Joe Mazzulla wants. I just think it is a great fit and the Celtics should get him. Of course there are issues, age and injury history top the list, but Boston is about winning titles and Antetokounmpo gets them closer to that goal.

I do think that the Miami weather and Florida taxes are appealing to Giannis and I do believe he wants to end up with the Heat. The Giannis-Bam fit lacks spacing and the rest of the roster would leave a lot to be desired but this is a team that went to two Finals led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Norman Powell are also probably left but that team just wouldn’t be as good as Boston with the Greek Freak and isn’t as good as the NBA Champion New York Knicks. Those Heat teams did go to the Finals but were overmatched and never had a real chance in either series that they played in.

It sounds like the race is between Miami and Boston but I do think there are other teams that could make the call. Atlanta always seemed like a suitor this past season but I just don’t see a pathway without including Jalen Johnson or Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I think the Magic should kick the tires, a three team trade that sends Giannis and Klay Thompson to Orlando, Jalen Suggs to Dallas and Paolo Banchero, P.J. Washington, Jase Richardson and a 2032 unprotected first round pick via Orlando to Milwaukee works in the trade machine. However, without an extension commitment from Giannis, Orlando won’t and shouldn’t do this and I don’t expect an extension commitment. The Blazers are the last team to think about because, again, they own the Bucks 2028, 2029 and 2030 first round picks. However, like Orlando, I don’t expect Antetokounmpo to extend in Portland so there won’t be a deal.

At the end of this, I do think Giannis ends up in Miami and as a Celtics fan I will be sick. I think that is where he wants to be and I am not sold that Boston is going to trade Brown and future picks for the Greek Freak. Overall, I am ready for a trade to happen and we can stop talking about this.