What comes next in Milwaukee?

The Milwaukee Bucks won the championship in 2021, they climbed the mountain top and no one can take that away from them.  However, their collapse since that point has them in a spot it might cost them Giannis Antetokounmpo.  How did they fall and what comes next?

Let’s start with the end of their game 5 loss.  Has anyone gone from hero to zero as fast as Gary Trent Jr.?  He was unconscious with some of the threes he was hitting in overtime before, with the Buck up 1 point, fumbling a pass out of bounds that led Indiana getting the ball back and a game winning layup.  Let’s backtrack, Milwaukee had a 7 point lead with 40 seconds to go and A.J. Green was at the foul line for his 2nd shot after making his 1st.  Green missed and Andrew Nembhard hit a ridiculous 33 footer to cut the lead to 4.  Then, Trent threw the ball away leading to a Tyrese Haliburton and-1 to cut the Bucks lead to one.  Of course it ended with a fumble by Trent and a Haliburton layup.  Just an all-time bad loss in an elimination game and I am not sure how the Bucks will recover from it.  However, we have to go back to 2023 to see how we got here.

I don’t think Milwaukee got it wrong after the 2023 season when they were bounced by the 8th seed Miami Heat in 5 games after a 58 win regular season in which they the best record in the NBA.  Firing Mike Budenholzer was not a mistake, hiring and then firing Adrian Griffin and hiring Doc Rivers could have been, but acting like Bud is Pat Riley or Red Auerbach is crazy to me.  Did we see what just happened in Phoenix?  The Lillard trade is another one that I don’t think Milwaukee should regret.  Sure, it went as badly as any of us could have imagined.  Lillard and Giannis have not connected well and Jrue Holiday ended up being the missing piece in the Celtics title but it was not a bad trade in theory.  Lillard raised the Bucks ceiling in a way the Holiday couldn’t, the floor just fell out from under the Bucks.

The roster has gotten old and the championship window has closed on it.  Khris Middleton was hurt a lot before the Bucks traded him, in what is a disaster of a trade.  Trading an all-time franchise legend to the worst team in the league for Kyle Kuzma is an insane thing to do, you almost deserve for this to happen.  Brook Lopez has fallen off a cliff and was out played by Jericho Sims during this series and Pat Connaughton was unplayable.  Milwaukee relied a lot on Trent Jr., Green and Kevin Porter Jr. in this series.  Their roster is a mess and they have no draft picks.  Their last swing was a Damian Lillard trade and that possibility was killed on Sunday night.

There are so many reasons Damian Lillard tearing his achilles is devastating.  Let’s start with the fact that it is really hard for small guards that will be 35 in July to come back from this type of injury.  Lillard is an all-time great player with two of the greatest shots in NBA history.  That shot against Oklahoma City in 2019 will be remembered forever.  Lillard is a legend in the NBA and in the city of Portland.  What he did with the Blazers for all those years was awesome and should be remembered fondly by casual observers of the league.  This is also devastating for Milwaukee.  There is a world where you could either move Lillard or keep him and talk yourself and Giannis into this being tenable and being able to compete for a championship.  That just is not a possibility anymore and this could spell the end of the Antetokounmpo era in Milwaukee.

I am not convinced that Giannis is going to ask out of Milwaukee.  However, there is a very real chance that we have seen the last of The Greek Freak in a Bucks uniform and Milwaukee needs to prepare for that.  The Rockets are the best landing spot in terms of what the Bucks could get back, in my opinion.  They have a lot of good young players and 3 Phoenix Suns picks, including one this season.  The deal I came up with is Reed Shepard, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks, the Suns 2025 unprotected first round pick, the Suns 2027 unprotected first round pick and the better of the Suns and Mavericks 2029 first round pick unprotected.  I don’t think anyone can make an offer better than that one.  The Thunder could also get involved.  Oklahoma City’s biggest trump card is Jalen Williams and future picks.  An offer of Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, the better of the Thunder and Clippers 2027 first round pick unprotected, the better of the Thunder and Mavericks 2028 first round pick unprotected and the Nuggets 2029 top 5 protected first round pick is a proposal that could work for both sides.  I am also not sure OKC makes that offer with how expensive their team could become if they were to make this trade.  The Nets, Heat and Warriors are also teams that will be mentioned but I don’t see any of those happening.

Trading Antetokounmpo is a nightmare scenario for the Bucks and their fans and something I am sure everyone would like to avoid but I just don’t see a way the Bucks build a contender around Giannis.  They own none of their draft picks until 2031 and don’t have any real ways of making their team better.  Sometimes it is best for a player to be a one team guy for their whole career and Giannis may want that.  However, if he wants to win another championship his best bet may be out of Milwaukee because I just don’t see it happening with the Bucks.