The offseason in Memphis

After a fun start to this past season, the Memphis Grizzlies fell off at the end of the season.  After a 36-17 start to the season, Memphis went 12-17 over the last 29 games of the regular season, leaving them 8th in the Western Conference, even with 48 wins.  After getting the 8th seed through the Play-In Tournament, Memphis was swept out of the first round by the Oklahoma City Thunder in embarrassing fashion.  It was a bad end to the season that leaves a lot of questions in the air in Memphis.

On March 28th, the Grizzlies fired their Head Coach Taylor Jenkins after six seasons.  Tuomas Iisalo took over as the interim coach and on May 2nd, Memphis made him the full time coach.  Memphis went 4-9 with Iisalo as their coach when you include the regular season, play-in and playoffs, with only 1 of those wins coming against a team that finished over .500.  Yet, they didn’t conduct much of a coaching search.  He clearly did not elevate their team at the end of the season the way you thought he could, the way getting a new voice in Denver did.  So why not conduct a real search?  It just seems odd to me, like you are admitting your roster is not good enough.

After the 2021-22 season, the Memphis Grizzlies were seen as this up and coming team who was here to stay after a 56 win season and a first round win.  Then during the 2022-23, Memphis was a first round exit at the hands of the 7th seeded Lakers after a 51 win season.  After a 27 win, injury laiden season during 2023-24 campaign, Memphis was supposed to be back in 2025, led by Ja Morant.  After just 9 games played in 2023-24 due to suspension and a labral tear, Morant was set to be back for the 2024-25 season.  He played 50 games this past season and didn’t look like himself, averaging 23.2 points per game, his fewest since his 2nd NBA season in 2020-21.  Where does this leave the rest of Memphis’ big 3?  With Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the court this season, the Grizzlies net rating was +7.5, that’s good but not elite.  Comparatively with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and Khris Middelton on the floor during the 2023-24 season, Milwaukee had a net rating +17.2.  Obviously one group has Giannis Antetokounmpo in it and the other doesn’t but that makes it all the more evident that this trio isn’t going to be the one that brings a championship to Memphis.  Which is important to understand because the Grizzlies have a big decision on Jaren Jackson coming up.

With Jaren Jackson Jr. missing All-NBA it took the Grizzlies ability to offer him a 5-year deal worth a projected $345 million extension this upcoming summer.  He wasn’t getting that deal, even if he had made All-NBA.  However, he could have signed a smaller extension, the Grizzlies would have been allowed to offer Jackson a 5-year deal worth a projected $295 million, if Jackson had made All-NBA.  That isn’t small and not something I am sure I would be comfortable giving out but it would be a 30% of the cap first year salary and that is the minimum Memphis would be allowed to offer.  Instead, the Grizzlies can offer him a 4yr/$146 million deal because his first year salary would be 140% of the $23 million he is due next season.  He won’t take that.  There is a way Memphis could give Jackson a raise and extend him off of that raise, something we have seen the Kings do with Domantas Sabonis and the Jazz do with Lauri Markkanen.  If the Grizzlies renounce all of their free agents rights aside from Santi Aldama, that would leave them with about $6 million in cap space.  Then they could use that cap space to give Jackson his new deal.  They traded their first round pick in this draft to get off of Marcus Smart’s money so they could extend Jackson even if he were to miss All-NBA, which he did.  If they find someone to take John Konchar’s $6 million next season, they could save even more money to extend Jackson.  Which seems like the most likely outcome for this Grizzlies offseason.

The rest of Memphis’ roster leaves some to be desired.  Jaylen Wells had a nice rookie year and is a player that I really like and should be ready to go for next season after missing the end of the 2024-25 season after a nasty fall caused him to break his wrist, get a concussion and have a facial laceration.  According to Google’s A.I., a facial laceration is “a cut or tear in the skin of the face, typically caused by blunt trauma like a fall, car accident, or being struck by an object.”  I do want to note that I could not find any update on Wells’ status for the start of next season.  Zach Edey is another player I like but it was announced while I am writing this that he will miss the beginning of the season due to a re-aggravation to a left ankle sprain that he will now get surgery on.  The rest of the roster doesn’t have a ton to be excited about.  After promising 2023-24 seasons both GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. had disappointing 2024-25 campaigns, some due to injury and some due to poor play.  I like Brandon Clarke but he has never played above 64 games in a season, Scotty Pippen Jr. is another guy I like but he is an undersized back-up point guard, Santi Aldama is a knock down shooter but a shaky defender at best and John Konchar can’t get into the rotation anymore.  Which brings me to my next point; I think Memphis should trade at least one of Morant, Bane or Jackson.

We talked about the net-rating of the Grizzlies with those 3 guys on the court.  It is good but it isn’t elite and you need your best 3 players to be elite when they are on the court.  There are two ways Memphis could go, all-in or the safe way.  To me, the all-in move is a Desmond Bane for Kevin Durant trade.  I don’t think Phoenix is going to get a better player in any Durant deal than Bane.  If the Grizzlies can find a way to get rid of Konchar’s salary after the fact, they could move Bane, Clarke and GG Jackson for Durant and still have $9.8 million in cap space to extend Triple J.  This would be a very big gamble and one I do not expect the Grizzlies to make but I think it would raise their ceiling in a very real way.  In my opinion, Durant is still one of the 10 to 15 best players in the league and could give Memphis a shot to get to the Conference Finals or farther.  They could also try and trade for Giannis by offering Jaren Jackson, plus salary filler, plus a lot of the picks they own but that also seems unlikely, trading a lot of their future picks is a risk that I don’t think Memphis is going to take even if it did get them one of the 5 best players in the world.  If the Grizzlies are going to break up this trio, it seems a more likely move is to just shuffle the pieces around.

I would be surprised if Memphis moved Jackson, sure he can’t rebound and fouls way too often but he was still their best player this past season and moving off of him is risky.  Trading Desmond Bane is an option but I am not sure of what that return looks like and it is not as fun to talk about.  That leaves us with Morant.  I think you would find a lot of teams would be interested in Ja Morant.  I am really not sure what Morant’s value is, he hasn’t played consistently good basketball in 2 years now but he has shown how great he can be when he is playing his best hoops.

The first deal I came up with was Morant and Konchar to the Kings for DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and first round pick swaps in 2026 and 2027.  Maybe the Kings have to throw in a 2031 pick as well, they have the lesser of their own and the Spurs pick and the Timberwolves unprotected that year.  Sacramento has traded 2 star point guards in recent years and this is a good way for them to get one back.  DeRozan and Monk could really help Memphis next season as well.  The Heat could offer Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Jovic, Jamie Jaquez Jr. and their 2030 first round pick unprotected for Morant if they wanted to try and pry the star guard from Memphis.  I’m not sure that is enough but I also am unsure of what the value for Morant is right now.  Does an Orlando offer of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, Jett Howard, the 16th pick and 2029 first round pick for Morant and Konchar make sense for either team?  It could, a foursome of Morant, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero would be a lot of fun.  It is also really expensive and I am not sure Orlando wants to be that expensive, especially in the 2nd apron era.

I also had some fun Morant trades that are very unlikely but would be a lot of fun to talk about.  First is a deal to the Wizards that sends Morant to the nation’s capital for Khris Middleton, the 6th pick in this draft and the 2nd best of the Celtics, Bucks and Trail Blazers 2029 first round pick.  Washington needs a star and Ja could be that star for them while Memphis gets number 6 and Middleton, who is still a good scorer when he is healthy.  Washington likely passes on this deal because trading the 6th pick in the draft for an unknown player on a max contract isn’t a spot they are in for this rebuild.  What about a Morant for Trae Young straight up swap?  The Hawks may not want to pay Young but don’t want to be without star guard so they could put Morant in Young’s place.  Meanwhile, I think Young is better than Ja is so that would be the Grizzlies reasoning.  Another fun but unlikely one is Morant and Konchar for Lauri Markkanen.  Markkanen is really good and a front line of Markkanen, Jackson Jr. and Edey could be really good.  The Jazz would also be getting a massive star if that is something they want, while getting off of the big Markkanen contract.  If I were to guess, I don’t think Memphis is going to move Morant but that doesn’t mean we can’t come up with fake trades!

The Grizzlies are entering a very pivotal offseason.  After a disappointing end to this season, the Grizzlies have a lot of questions they need to answer this summer, starting with what they think the ceiling of a Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant and Desmond Bane led team is.