The Golden State Warriors have a championship ceiling

When the Golden State Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline last year, it was seen as a good trade for them but not one that would catapult them into the championship conversations. Butler had a rough ending in Miami and the age of the Warriors stars made people hesitate.  Then they started playing the games and the Warriors were really good.  Golden State went 23-7 in games that Butler played in but lost the last game of the season and were forced to play in the Play-In Tournament.  After the Warriors beat the Grizzlies, they took on the Rockets and knocked them out in 7 games.  Then, they fell to the Timberwolves in large part due to Stephen Curry’s hamstring injury that cost him games 2-5.  It was a disappointing end but one thing was clear, the Warriors still had life.

This summer the Warriors took a while to make their moves but they made good ones.  Al Horford, De’Anthony Melton and Will Richard were the big additions.  Richard has been a great rookie, the 56th pick in the draft, he has been a nice piece to add to the Warriors rotation.  Horford is an A+ edition.  Even at 39-years-old, he is still a very productive center who can shoot threes and switch on defense and he will be a big piece for Golden State as they look to make a run in the Western Conference.  Melton has still been recovering from a torn ACL last season but his three point shooting will help the Warriors when he returns.  The team is also going to sign Seth Curry who was with the team during training camp but had to be waived due to apron reasons.  Curry, who will be re-signed at some point during November will provide Golden State with even more shooting.

One reason to be really excited about Golden State’s start is the play of Jonathan Kuminga.  After being benched at the end of last season, Kuminga played very well in the Minnesota series after the Curry injury and it has carried over to this season, even with the awkward summer.  He has been awesome to start the season averaging career highs with 16.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists.  His minutes have increased as well but that is because Steve Kerr trusts him now.  It seems like Kuminga is understanding the system better and his athleticism is finally starting to pop on a team that needs him badly.  His fit with the 3 stars has been awesome as well, Golden State’s net rating with those 4 guys on the floor is +27.3, their offensive rating is 127.3 and their defensive rating is 100.0.  Those lineups have dominated this season and though it is early, it is a good sign of what is to come for Golden State.

Ever since the Butler trade, Golden State has been dominant with their new big 3 on the floor.  In 530 regular season minutes with Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green on the floor, the Warriors have a net rating of +9.1 with an offensive rating of 122.8 and a defensive rating of 113.7.  The defense isn’t great, it would have ranked in the middle of the NBA last season but offensively they are a machine, the 122.8 offensive rating would have been the best in the NBA a season ago.  Curry is what makes everything go on offense, his gravity draws so much attention coming off of pin-downs that it creates opportunities for the other guys to get their shots.  We saw in those last 4 games of the Timberwolves series that the Warriors had no shot at scoring without him as they scored 104.6 points per 100 possessions (offensive rating is the same thing as anything per 100 possessions).  Teams can’t win games when they are scoring like that and Curry himself would have prevented that from happening.

Butler has also increased Golden State’s offense in a lot of different ways as well.  For example, before his debut last season, the Warriors were 29th in free throw rate, taking 16.3 free throws per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass.  After his debut, a 132-111 win over the Bulls on February 8th, Golden State was 1st (number 1) in the NBA in free throw rate, getting to the line 23.7 times per 100 possessions.  That makes a huge difference because it gives Golden State more opportunities to get easy points.  Golden State has never gotten to the a ton during their dynasty years and they do that now.  It raises their offensive floor and ceiling a lot.

The Warriors were not a team people thought were in the same class as the Nuggets or Thunder entering the season.  While 5 games is not enough to make a definitive statement, I do think we should be taking them more seriously as a title threat.  Health is a big deal, this is a team with a bunch of old guys so making sure you get into the playoffs healthy and stay healthy during the postseason will decide this team's ceiling.  However, if you were to ask me today who the third best team in the Western Conference is, I would say Golden State.  Horford is such a great addition, his spacing and defense are still really high level.  I don’t think we have seen a big that can stretch the floor like Horford on the Warriors during this 10+ year run.  Draymond is also still awesome defensively, even at his age with the miles on his body, Green remains one of the premier defensive players in the league.  The Warriors are really good and if you look at the rest of the west, it is a bunch of teams with flaws.

We saw last night, Golden State’s old guys are better than the Clippers, Houston and Minnesota don’t have a true lead ball handler, LeBron is 41 and already hurt for the Lakers and the Spurs are super young (though that Wembanayma is simply incredible).  I just think we need to reevaluate what we think of the Warriors (or at least I do).  This is a team that has championship DNA all over it and one that looks ready to win another.  I think the Warriors need to be taken seriously as a championship team.