The Philadelphia 76ers are off to a weird start

The Philadelphia 76ers are off to a great start this year. Sitting at 9-3 and 2nd in the Eastern Conference is exactly where their fans would want to be right now. The defense is way better than anyone thought it would be and is a big reason for Philadelphia’s hot start. Yet, once you look under the hood a little bit more, there are worries about the 76ers. Cleaning the Glass filters out ‘garbage time’ when putting together their numbers, they have the Sixers 16th in net rating at just +0.2. Which is the same as the 7-5 Atlanta Hawks and worse than the 5-6 Toronto Raptors. Comparatively, the 10-2 Boston Celtics net rating is +12.2. What is this Sixers team and are they really one of the best teams in the league?

I think we need to start with the game on Tuesday night. The much hyped Jaylen Brown vs Jayson Tatum game did not go the way Brown or his new team wanted it to. Brown was not good in the game, with just 13 points, he was in foul trouble for most of the game and he had 4 turnovers as well, one of which was caused by his former co-star. He looked out of sorts for much of the game, not to mention that former Sixer Paul George, who was a part of the package to get Brown, had 36 points in a 123-101 Celtics win. It was a bad night for the Sixers but it doesn’t define the start to their season.

Tuesday night’s loss to Boston did expose some flaws Philadelphia has on their roster. Let’s start with Joel Embiid. He simply cannot move right now. Embiid is currently averaging a career low 17.7 points per game while shooting a career low from the field (37%), from two point range (44%) and from three point range (12%). He doesn’t jump, he doesn’t play around the rim, he can’t make a three (Embiid has made 4 of his 33 attempted three pointers this season), he can’t guard on the perimeter and he doesn’t block shots anymore (his 1.1% block rate is in the 20th percentile among big men per Cleaning the Glass). It isn’t going well, the only way he could generate points was at the free throw line on Tuesday night, which is a far cry from what he did to Boston in the first round just 7 months ago.

Tyrese Maxey, on the other hand, has been fantastic to start the year and is the Sixers best player, bar none. His speed is his best weapon, that first step is deadly but his three point shot and playmaking are also among the best in the league. He has so many answers for the different ways teams guard him. His first step and pull up three are his best weapons for when he has the ball in the half court and it is hard to guard both of them.

The Sixers have a really good team with one of the best starting lineups in the NBA. We have yet to mention LeBron James to this point, the way he has connected this team on offense has been a big help. He has also been very good in exploiting mismatches and getting easy buckets that way. VJ Edgecombe is also a big part of the team. He is a better defender than James is at his age and the way he gets out in transition and plays out of that is always fun to watch as well. The bench has some holes, the backup center is the big one but I remain confident this team can be really good.

It is hard to know what this Sixers team is right now. On offense, they have been a disappointment, ranking 24th in offensive rating. A lot of that can be traced back to their three point shooting, Philly ranks 27th in three point rate and 25th in three point percentage. The shooting around their stars just hasn’t been there and the shooting in their starting 5 isn’t great. Anferenee Simons is a big part of their three point shooting but he was played off the court on Tuesday night due to his inability to guard. Dean Wade and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are going to need to make their threes for this team and they have been up and down in recent years from beyond. Wade has always been a good regular season three point shooter but it has disappeared in the playoffs, though he did shoot it well in last year’s postseason. KCP, meanwhile, has shot 46% from three this year, which is very much up from the 33% he shot over the last 2 seasons with Orlando and Memphis so his hot start is likely to fall off a bit. The Sixers need to make more threes than they have to start the year. I expect the offense to improve but there will be a ceiling if these three point numbers hold.

While their offense has struggled, Philly’s defense has been great to start the year. That is surprising because I didn’t think the Sixers defense would be good this season. Philadelphia has the 8th best defense in the league to start the season, that has been dependent on Joel Embiid. The Sixers defense is 11.3 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid on the floor than when he is off of it. For as bad as Embiid has looked, he has been the key to Philly’s defense to start the season. His size at the rim is a big part of that, even if he isn’t blocking shots anymore. It is vital that the Sixers keep him as healthy as possible for the rest of the season.

The 76ers are off to a weird start to the year. Their record is great but their net rating is not, meaning something has to give. I think they’ll get more efficient on offense as the season goes along, they have too many great offensive players on the team for it not to improve. If the defense and the way they finish close games can hold, the record will be the thing that wins out. However, Embiid’s health and LeBron’s age are always an issue and both players very well may miss time at some point this year. We are 12 games into the season so there is a lot of season left, so not knowing how good this Philadelphia team is with their new roster is to be expected. I don’t trust them yet to be able to win the championship, as their flaws look too big for me to trust them on that level. However, there is a really good team somewhere within this Sixers group and they need to find it.