Laying out the pathways for Giannis to become a New York Knick

I was going to write a fake trades blog but then Shams Charania put out the tweet that Giannis Antetokounmpo is ‘ready for a new team’ and that the Bucks are listening to offers. This seems to be headed to a trade to the New York Knicks and in recent days there have been rumors of a three team trade that includes the Portland Trail Blazers. There are two different ways this could go down so I wanted to break them both down.

Please note that this trade cannot happen until February 1st, this upcoming Sunday, because of a  contract extension Mikal Bridges signed in August.

Trade One

Knicks get Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Thanasis Antetokounmpo

It will be (basically) the same package for the Knicks in either of these two trades. There are legit questions for the Knicks in this deal. One is Antetokounmpo’s health, he recently suffered another calf strain and ruled himself out for 4 to 6 weeks. Although, it is worth noting that the Bucks still have not put a timeline on any potential return. This is not the first calf injury for Antetokounmpo this season, he missed time in December with the same injury in the same right calf. We have seen how these calf injuries can go over the last couple of seasons, there is risk involved. That is a concern for any acquiring team. However, most teams would still trade for him. He is one of the top 5 players in the world and would instantly make the Knicks the favorites in the Eastern Conference (assuming his health). Jrue would also be a good addition. That contract is rough but he is a good shooter and has shown he still can be a high level playmaker, averaging 6.8 assists per game this year. This deal would leave the Knicks without a true starting caliber center (this trade just is not possible without including Mitchell Robinson) but this is Giannis Antetokounmpo we are talking about, you take that chance and try and add a center a different way.

Bucks get Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson, Tyler Kolek, their own 2028 first round pick, best of Celtics, Blazers, their own 2029 first round pick and their own 2030 first round pick (via Portland) and 2026 Wizards (top 8 protected) first round pick (likely Wizards 2nd rounders in 2026 and 2027) along with 2030 and 2032 pick swaps (via New York)

Let’s simplify this, Towns, Robinson, Kolek, 3 first round picks, likely 2 high second round picks and 2 pick swaps. Milwaukee would control all of their picks, aside from next season, and would really be able to rebuild the correct way. That is a big part and Portland has their swap rights due to the Damian Lillard trade. I think this comes down to what you think of Karl-Anthony Towns. He is a great player, no doubt but we have seen him be on some really bad teams in Minnesota, that is how they got Anthony Edwards. This Bucks roster is not one that Towns can lift into the playoffs. Could the Bucks flip him either this summer or sometime later, for sure and that is what would likely happen, which is why there are two scenarios to this trade. I also like Kolek, he has had his moments this year but Deuce McBride might be mandatory for Milwaukee in this deal. Mitchell Robinson is a salary filler and could get flipped.

Trail Blazers get Mikal Bridges and Kevin Porter Jr.

Porter Jr. is out for an extended period of time and is in this deal for salary reasons. We have seen Bridges get traded for 5 first round picks so teams value him a lot. You could make the argument that this is more than what New York gave up based on where we are projecting the Bucks to be over the next few seasons. I am clearly just lower on Bridges than the rest of the league is because I wouldn’t do this trade. He is a really good player but not a guy who moves the needle from a Western Conference Play-In team to a Western Conference contender. I just wouldn’t make this deal right now if I was running the Blazers.

Trade Two

Knicks get Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Thanasis Antetokounmpo and Cole Anthony

Anthony is a throw in addition to this trade so the Bucks don’t have to waive 2 players to make this deal (they would need to waive Amir Coffey). Same thing goes as the first trade though, this is a risk for the Knicks to make but I think it is a worthwhile one.

Bucks get Scoot Henderson, Jerami Grant, Mitchell Robinson, Tyler Kolek, their own 2028 first round pick, 2028 Magic first round pick, best of Celtics, Blazers, their own 2029 first round pick and their own 2030 first round pick (via Portland) and 2026 Wizards (top 8 protected) first round pick (likely Wizards 2nd rounders in 2026 and 2027) along with 2030 and 2032 pick swaps (via New York)

Again, let’s simplify this, Henderson, Grant, Robinson, Kolek, 4 first round picks, likely 2 high second round picks and 2 pick swaps. I debated between Henderson and Donovan Clignan for this deal and went with Henderson. I am still a Scoot Henderson believer and think that he is the high upside swing that the Bucks get in this trade. Milwaukee wants a young blue chip player in a deal and I still think Henderson could qualify as that, even if I have my worries. His floor is lower than Clignan’s, who has shown that he is a very solid NBA player but the ceiling is higher. Henderson running point for Milwaukee for years and years to come is exciting and worth the flier in this trade. They also get the Magic’s 2028 pick, as another token to add to their collection, and Jerami Grant for salary purposes.

Trail Blazers get Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges

Talk about an all-in move. I actually like this path better for Portland than just Bridges because if you go all-in, go all-in. They keep all of their own picks in future years but lose all of the extra stuff they have gotten over the past couple of seasons. It certainly elevates them and would make them a frisky playoff team but is it really that big of a needle mover? They would need a guard but I have a plan for that, trade Robert Williams and Matisse Thybulle (both expiring contracts) to the Kings for Malik Monk and Dario Saric. The Kings seem to want to trade Monk and he can play point guard for Portland. Punting on Henderson and all of those Bucks picks would be too much for me to do if I was running the Blazers but Portland seems interested in this deal.