Game 7 preview

Game 7, get your Zaza video ready.  The entire season comes down to one game.  The Indiana Pacers defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder in game 6 and have forced a game 7 in the NBA Finals for the first time since 2016.  This has been an all time great Finals so what should we expect in game 7.

I think we have to start with how we got here. I wrote about games 1-4 last weekend so go read that.  The first 5 games reminded me a lot of the 2022 Finals between the Warriors and Celtics.  Boston won game 1 on the road in a crazy way and then the two home teams won games 2 and 3 before Boston let game 4 slip away and although in game 5 the C’s hung around, Golden State pulled away late.  That is how this series went and in game 6 in 2022, Golden State was able to slam the door on the Celtics.  That isn’t how this series went. In game 5, Indiana made runs and stayed in it but the Thunder just pulled away late.  Game 6 opened with a 10-2​​ Thunder run and it looked like they might run away and hide.  However, Indiana flipped the script and just dominated the game.  I thought Oklahoma City was just out of sorts on offense.  They only scored 91 points and 31 of those came in the fourth quarter which was a whole quarter of garbage time.  They just didn’t have any juice on that end of the court.  6/13 for Jalen Williams and 2/9 for Chet Holmgren isn’t going to cut it.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 21 points but only 7 made field goals to 8 turnovers.  It was a nightmare game and they’ll need to be better in game 7.  For the Pacers, it all came together at home.  Tyrese Haliburton looked pretty good on his calf, he has a calf strain which is something to keep an eye on.  However, the Pacers also got big contributions from the rest of the team as well.  20 points from Obi Toppin off of the bench, 17 points for Andrew Nembhard, 16 points for Pascal Siakam and 12 points from TJ McConnell.  They were awesome and have all been awesome for most of this series.  It was a complete team effort by the Pacers to force game 7, so what should we expect in that game?

Game 7 is usually a game where everyone is nervous and tense.  However, the Thunder have been a different team at home in these playoffs.  On the road they are 5-5 with a -6.2 net rating, in the Paycom Center they are 10-2 with a net rating of +20.7.  Both games they lost were one crazy game winning shots, Aaron Gordon’s in game 1 of round 2 and Halliburton's in game 1 of these Finals.  They have been a different team at home in these playoffs.  In the history of game 7 of the Finals, home teams are 15-4.  The Thunder are going to need a big game from at least one of SGA or J-Dub, maybe both.  Williams has had an awesome Finals, scoring 40 in game 5 and the Thunder will need a big night from him.  I think they will and Gilgeous-Alexander will also need to deliver a big game.  For Indiana, Halliburton's calf is a concern, he looked good enough in game 6 but calf injuries are tricky and something to keep an eye on.  Pascal Siakam has had an awesome series and would be my pick for Finals MVP if the Pacers had won already.  Their defense on the Thunder stars and limiting turnovers are their key to victory in the winner take all game.  In game 6, they only had 10 turnovers compared to OKC’s 21.  Williams has figured out the Aaron Nesmith matchup, he has gotten better against him since the series started, even with a  rough game 6.  Andrew Nembhard has done an awesome job with limiting and making SGA uncomfortable.  Myles Turner will also need to make shots if Indy is going to steal this game on the road.

I think the Thunder win the game.  They have been way more comfortable at home and have been the best team in the league all season.  I think they’ll win the game and maybe going away.  However, most of these game 7’s in the Finals have been close and hopefully this game 7 will also be a close one.

P.S. I haven’t written anything on the Desmond Bane trade yet because I was gonna combine it with the Durant trade.  However, I like it for Orlando, Bane gives them something they don’t have.  For Memphis, it’ll be interesting to see what comes next.