Can anyone in the West beat the Thunder?

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the best team in the Western Conference this season by a wide margin.  They are 12.5 games up on the Rockets for 2nd place and clinched the 1st seed before anyone else clinched a playoff spot.  They have been historically dominant this season and have the likely MVP on their roster.  As a result, the question has to be asked, can anyone in the west beat the Thunder.

I wrote about the Nuggets last week but I just don’t think they have enough depth to beat the Thunder.  Oklahoma City just has too much lineup flexibility and too many good basketball players for Denver to beat them 4 out of 7.  The Houston Rockets are the current number 2 seed in the Western Conference.  I just don’t think that they have enough offense to beat the Thunder, their clutch time (which is defined as a 5 point game with under 5 minutes to go) offense is shaky with an offensive rating of 107.3 in clutch time.  They just don’t have the horses to keep up with the Thunder.  The Memphis Grizzlies need Ja Morant to be the Ja Morant of 2021-22 and 2022-23.  He just hasn’t been that guy this season.  He isn’t scoring at the same level he was in those seasons, shooting 45% from the field and 29% from three.  Jaren Jackson Jr. has become the Grizzlies best player and for as great a player as Triple J is, I just don’t think he can be the best player on a team that can win the championship.  Memphis is another team that I just don’t think is a serious contender in this loaded Western Conference.

Below those teams you have the Clippers and Timberwolves.  I think both the Wolves and Clippers are better than Memphis but neither of them can beat OKC 4 out of 7 times.  I wouldn’t pick either to get swept but neither team is going to beat the Thunder.  The two teams in the west I give the best shot to take out OKC are the Lakers and Warriors.

The Golden State Warriors have been a different team since they acquired Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat.  Since Butler’s debut, Golden State is 16-4 and owns the 2nd best defense in the sport, just 0.1 points per 100 possessions worse than the Pistons.  Butler has completely changed the way the Warriors carry themselves as well. After the Warriors beat the Knicks on March 15th, Draymond Green talked about the impact Butler has made. “It's a real ball club now," Green told ABC's Lisa Salters. "With [Butler] on this team, whether he has 11 points or 30, it makes us a real ball club. And when we're a real ball club, we usually win championships." They have the belief they can win the title.  Golden State’s offense has improved since the Butler trade as well.  While not as good as their defense, the Warriors are 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.  Butler has given them another playmaker along with Stephen Curry.  Jimmy has averaged 6.5 assists per game since the trade, his impact has been felt on both sides of the floor.  Butler has also allowed Curry to become more of a scorer.  His average has jumped from 24.2 points per game to 27.5 points per game with Butler in the lineup.  His percentages have jumped as well, 45% to 48% on field goals and 39% to 41% on three pointers.  Butler has changed everything about the Warriors.

We all remember how the season ended for the Thunder last season, at the hands of Luka Doncic taking them out himself.  In that series, Doncic averaged 24.7 points, 10.5 rebounds and 8.7 assists, OKC had no answer for Doncic and the Mavericks.  Not sure if you have heard but Doncic was traded and now plays for the Lakers.  He and LeBron make the Lakers a real threat in the Western Conference.  Both James and Doncic have been awesome since the trade, the offense is always going to click when you have 2 players like that.  The Lakers are littered with playmakers and shooting on the roster, Austin Reaves is one of the better third options in the NBA.  However, it has been LA’s defense that has surprised people.  From the time of the trade until James got hurt on March 8th in a loss to the Celtics, the Lakers defense was 4th in the league behind Detroit, Golden State and Cleveland.  They don’t have a ton of size and that worries me in a playoff series but they are really good and, to me, are the biggest threat to the Thunder in the Western Conference.

With all of that said, I am struggling to see a way that the Thunder lose anytime before the Finals.  First, they’ll have the best player on the court against every team that isn’t the Denver Nuggets.  That is how good Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been this season.  He is likely going to win the MVP and he has been most of OKC’s offense this season.  The Thunder score 123.6 points per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, that number would be the best in the NBA.  He is what makes their offense go and as long as he is on the floor, they are going to find ways to score.  While their offense is great, it is Oklahoma City’s defense that makes them go.  They have the best defense in the sport, giving up 106.2 points per 100 possessions, 3.2 points better than the 2nd place Orlando Magic.  Their perimeter defense is elite with Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso and Lu Dort guarding the ball and their rim protection might be better with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren holding down the paint.  You have 6 elite defender’s before you get to SGA, who is no slouch on the defensive end.  The Thunder are making the bet that SGA plus one of the best defenses ever will be good enough to win the title and it is not a bad bet to make.

OKC has been the best team in the Western Conference all season and they are going to get the first seed by a double digit number of games.  They have beaten everyone down in dominant ways this season and I don’t think that will change in the playoffs.