A trade, restricted free agency and other news and notes

The restricted free agency market is moving very slowly so it is time for me to analyze what each player could be worth plus where they might go.  Also, we had an interesting trade and other news and notes around the league.

The Norman Powell-John Collins trade

This trade was very interesting to me. Let’s start with the Clippers.  It sounds like the Clippers are going to sign Bradley Beal once he is bought out by the Suns (what is taking that so long there?). That makes this trade make a lot of sense for the Clippers.  Norman Powell had a career season a year ago scoring 21.8 points per game on 48% from the floor and 42% from three.  However, he is due a new contract and the Clippers are seemingly looking to keep their books clear for free agency for the 2027 summer so they traded him before they had to pay him.  The Collins addition is a good one.  He gives the Clippers a lot more lineup versatility as a true power forward.  They can play him next to Ivica Zubac or Brook Lopez and they can also use him as the lone big with Kawhi Leoanrd and/or Derrick Jones Jr. on the floor at the 4.  Signing Beal should make up a lot of the scoring and ball handling that the Clips lose with this trade.  This seems like a salary dump before the salary kicks in for the Clippers as they now won’t pay the Powell extension.

The Heat are taking a no-risk flyer on Powell, they didn’t even trade the pick in this trade!  I am not sure Erik Spoelstra wants to start a back court of Powell and Tyler Herro with their defensive limitations but Miami needed another guy who can put the ball in the hoop and Powell gives them that.  I am not sure how much this levels the Heat up in the Eastern Conference and I am not sure what a potential Norman Powell extension looks like but this is a good low risk bet by the Heat.

This deal creates an interesting situation for the Jazz.  It creates a traded player exception of $26 million that the Jazz can use to acquire players without sending any money out.  They can also get up to $18 million in cap space by waiving KJ Martin and Jaden Springer, that could be enough to sign Quinten Grimes to an offer sheet, a good player who would help Utah long term.  If they dump Kyle Anderson, they could create enough space to sign Jonthan Kuminga to an offer sheet.  The Jazz have created more options for themselves to add more talent with this trade and god knows they need some talent.

Now, let’s get into the restricted free agents of Kuminga, Grimes, Josh Giddey and Cam Thomas.

Jonathan Kuminga

It doesn’t feel like either Kuminga nor the Warriors want to get back together.  After being benched in the playoffs last year, Kuminga hit restricted free agency this summer.  There have been rumors of teams that have been interested with the Sacramento Kings and Miami Heat being the most prevalent of the group. With the Powell trade it seems unlikely Miami gets anything done on Kuminga so that leaves Sacramento as the favorite to land Kuminga away from Golden State.  Jonathan Kuminga is a good player who has his flaws.  His raw athleticism and ability to play around the rim are things that a lot of teams around the NBA should want, especially with the two finalists we had this season.  He just doesn’t fit the Warriors weird system and that is what is likely going to lead to his departure.  I think Kuminga ends up with the Kings on a 3 or 4 year deal worth around $25 million annually.  However, this is going to drag on for a while and someone might make the move out of nowhere.  I would be surprised if he was back with Golden State for next season and beyond, however.

Josh Giddey

This seems like a standoff between 2 parties who know they are likely going to end up back together. Giddey reportedly wants a deal worth north of $30 million a year and the Bulls haven’t shown an interest in doing that.  Giddey had a good season for Chicago last year and he really came on after the All-Star break where he averaged 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game while shooting 50% from the field and 45% from three during the 19 game sample size.  Those are really good numbers and signal that there is a really good player somewhere within Giddey.  Of course, we all watched what happened to him during the 2024 playoffs with the Thunder when he got played off of the court because he couldn’t make a shot and couldn’t stop anyone from beating him off of the dribble.  You can see why Chicago doesn’t want to commit huge dollars to him in this new apron era, the Bulls also have a pathway to good cap space in 2026 (though that seems unlikely).  I would be stunned if Giddey isn’t a Bull next season and think he will come in on a 3 or 4 year deal worth about $28 million annually.  My guess would be he gets a 3-year deal.

Quentin Grimes

If there is a guy Utah should throw an offer sheet to, it is Quentin Grimes.  Grimes came on really strong at the end of last season after being traded for Caleb Martin at the trade deadline.  In 28 games, 25 starts, as a 76er, Grimes averaged 21.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game on shooting splits of .47/.37/.75.  He is a good player who is 25-years-old and is going to get a nice payday for himself.  Grimes is a plus defender who showed in Philadelphia that a good runaway can be a real contributor.  Grimes was good for Dallas before the trade too, though the numbers weren’t what they became in Philadelphia, he was still playing well and contributing solid play.  There would be risks for Utah if they did throw Grimes an offer sheet, namely they would have to renounce the trade exception to create the cap space for Grimes to sign the offer sheet.  I do think Utah should take that risk, however.  This is a good player and realistically, Utah is only going to use that trade exception to take on money to get more picks and they have enough picks already.  They could give him a 3 or 4 year deal with a first year salary at around $18 million with a player option and a 15% trade kicker on it.  The Sixers might match that but the price is big enough that they may not as well.  However, I don’t think the Jazz are going to do that and Grimes will likely re-up with the Sixers on a price tag that I am unsure of what it will be.

Cam Thomas

Cam Thomas has the most fascinating restricted free agency.  Entering the summer there was one team with real cap space, it was the Brooklyn Nets.  Thomas, of course, has spent the first 4 seasons of his career as a Net.  Thus, there was no team he could use as leverage to get a deal from his incumbent team.  We talked about Utah having space but Thomas makes no sense for them considering they are trying to create minutes for their young guards.  If there is one thing Thomas can do, it is score.  Over the past 2 seasons, in 91 games played, Thomas has averaged 23 points, 3 assists and 3 rebounds per game on shooting splits of .44/.36/.86.  There are a lot of empty calories mixed in there with a bad team and Thomas fits the criteria of a small guard who can score.  Those haven’t been very popular this free agent go around with the market we have seen for those types of players.  Hence why there isn’t a huge market for Thomas. If there is one player who I think will take the qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, it is Thomas.  As a result, that’ll be my prediction, Thomas takes the qualifying offer.

Other news and notes

There have been other moves we have not talked about yet.  First the Wizards acquired Cam Whitmore for 2 second round picks.  This is a good buy low bet for Washington on a young player who can score and is ultra athletic.  Sure, he has tunnel vision that he will need to correct to stick in the league for a long time but this is a good low risk get for the Wizards. He was never going to find minutes in Houston, which is why they dealt him. 

The Wizards also traded Kelly Olynyk to the Spurs for Malaki Branham, Blake Wesley and a 2026 2nd round pick.  I really like this deal for the Spurs, pair it with the Luke Kornet signing and the Spurs have found 2 bigs with different skill sets to back up and even play with Victor Wembanyama.  Olynyk will give San Antonio a good stretch 5 option off of their bench on a team I think could be sneaky good entering next season.  This is a fine deal for Washington, Branham fell out of the Spurs rotation last season and Wesley has never carved out a consistent role.  Both players are free agents next summer as well.  A lot of people are talking like this is a grand slam for the Wizards and I am skeptical about that.

The Pacers traded a 2nd round pick and a 2nd round pick swap to the Grizzlies for Jay Huff.  Huff is on a really cheap contract for the next 3 seasons and showed some flashes for Memphis last season.  I really like this deal for the Pacers and don’t understand why the Grizzlies traded Huff to sign Jock Landale, who was waived by Houston.  There were a lot of new contract extensions signed as well, none of which were unexpected.  Devin Booker signed a 2yr/$145 million deal and Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero signed 5yr/$239 million deals with language to get even bigger based on All-NBA.  None of these were unexpected or gross overpays so there isn’t much else to say.