2026 Play-In Preview

The NBA Play-In Tournament is here and so it is time to break down all 4 games we know of and give some picks as well.

10 Heat at 9 Hornets, Tuesday 7:30pm/EST on Prime Video

This game is going to come down to whether or not the Heat can keep up with Charlotte's offense. Since Thanksgiving, the Hornets have the 4th best offense, 5th best defense and 5th best net rating in the NBA. Since January 22nd, the Hornets have the 2nd best offense, 6th best defense and 2nd best net rating in the NBA. This is a good team and they have shown that over these last few months of the season. It was tough losses to the Celtics and Pistons put the Hornets in the 9-10 game. Amongst 5 man lineups who have played over 200 minutes, the Hornets starting 5 of LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabate have the best net rating in the league at +26.4 with an offensive rating of 134.9 in 509 minutes. They are really tough to beat when they have their 5 best guys on the floor. On the Miami side, we just haven’t seen the duo of Tyler Herro and Norman Powell at all this season. The two have shared the court for 257 minutes with a net rating of -6.9. It is a two sided coin for Miami, can they generate enough offense to keep up with the Hornets with one of those guys on the bench? On the other hand, can they get enough stops with both of those guys on the court? Some tough decisions are coming for Erik Spoelstra. I do want to note that the Heat have never lost an elimination play-in game and Bam Adebayo has been fantastic this year.

My pick: Hornets

In case it wasn’t obvious I am picking the Hornets to win this game and win it going away. I don’t think they can compete with the likes of the Pistons, Celtics or Knicks but this is a legit good basketball team that has a lot of answers on offense. Miami has also fallen apart as we near the end of the season, they are 5-10 since March 14th when they were coming off of a 7 game winning streak, 2 of those wins since March 14th are against the Wizards. They are pointing on the down slope and thought it flipped in last season’s play-in, this Hornets team is better than both the Bulls and Hawks were last year.

8 Trail Blazers at 7 Suns, Tuesday 10:00pm/EST on Prime Video

Two teams that have exceeded the expectations that I had set for them this season. Two teams that have shaky offenses that run through their star player but pretty good defenses. Devin Booker and Deni Avdija are always the players to watch when these teams take the court. These are very similar teams, Phoenix is 16th in offense and 9th in defense while Portland is 20th in offense and 12th in defense. The Suns have been the better team all season. One reason for this is that they have a lot of weapons on offense beyond just Booker. Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie and Grayson Allen have all had really good years and Jalen Green still has the highest ceiling out of all of them. They also have a good center rotation built around Mark Williams and Oso Ighodaro, rookie Khaman Maluach has factored at times in as well. Portland doesn’t have the shooters that the Suns have but they do have a lot of size. Donovan Clignan and Robert Williams is probably a better big duo than the Suns have and Avdija is joined by another big body wing in Toumani Camara to provide very good defense. Shaedon Sharpe returned on Friday night, he had been out since February 6th so that will help Portland’s offense. This is an offense that can get bogged down due to the lack of shooting and that could be a problem in this game.

My pick: Suns

These are two teams with very similar styles, good defenses with shaky offenses that take a lot of threes and, frankly, the Suns are just better at it. This season, the Blazers rank 4th in three point rate while the Suns are 6th. However, Phoenix is 11th in three point percentage while Portland is 27th. The Blazers are definitely bigger and more athletic than the Suns are and that is a problem that Phoenix is going to need to address but I just don’t know that Portland has enough offensive juice to keep up with the Suns, even though Phoenix has been just 1.3 points better per 100 possessions for the entire season.

8 Magic at 7 76ers, Wednesday 7:30pm/EST on Prime Video

No Joel Embiid certainly impacts this ball game. If the big man was playing, this would be an easy Philly pick, without him it is a bit trickier. The Sixers have the best player on the floor. Tyrese Maxey has had an All-NBA season, keeping the 76ers above water and getting them into the 7-8 play-in game. I wrote about Orlando a few weeks ago and since that point they have gotten all of their guys back and had won 5 games in a row entering Sunday night’s game in Boston against a team without 8 guys. They lost to the zombie Celtics in a very ugly fashion. Their offense is better than it has been in years but the defense has regressed in a major way. For as bad as their offense was a season ago, they could always fall back on their defense to get stops and they just haven’t been able to do that this season. They finished 14th in defense this season after being 2nd a season ago. The Philly guards of Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are tough and they are going to get their buckets. Paul George has been great since coming back from his suspension. The question becomes, do the 76ers have enough on both sides of the court without Embiid to beat Orlando?

My pick: Magic

I think the answer to my own question is no. Do I think that Orlando is a really good team? No, of course not and the loss on Sunday makes me nervous about this game but the 76ers offense just has been average this season and losing Embiid doesn’t help that. Maxey is great and Edgecombe has had an awesome year but beyond that, there is not a ton of offense on this team. I also think that the lack of Embiid hurts the 76ers defense as well. Andre Drummond and Adem Bona are fine but Orlando has a lot of size on the wings and they can get to the basket very well. I just don’t think that Philadelphia has enough to win this game without Embiid.

10 Warriors at 9 Clippers, Wednesday 10:00pm/EST on Prime Video

The Clippers had an historic turn around when they flipped their 6-21 record into a 42-40 record.​ They were big sellers at the trade deadline, sending Ivica Zubac to the Pacers and James Harden to the Cavaliers but that has not stopped them from continuing to roll to a 36-19 record over their last 55 games of the season. However, that came to a halt on Friday night when they had a chance to lock up the 8 seed and lost a game to Portland, now they have to win 2 games to get into the playoffs. Golden State’s season, meanwhile, has been decimated by injuries. Stephen Curry is back but might be too little too late as the Dubs try and get back to the playoffs. This team is old and on its last legs and the Jimmy Butler torn ACL may have been the nail in the coffin to this era. The Clippers starting center being Brook Lopez in 2026 tells you all you need to know about where they are going but they have more offensive stars with Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland than Golden State does with just Curry. That puts more pressure on Kristaps Porzingis, Brandin Podziemski and others to carry an offensive load as the game wears on.

My pick: Clippers

Even with the return of Curry, I don’t think that the Warriors have enough to keep up with the Clippers offense. No, the Clippers don’t have a juggernaut of an offense but they do have 2 legit offensive stars that when the going gets tough, you believe are going to execute late in the game. Even with the return of Curry, who rolled his ankle again in the Dubs loss to the Kings on Friday night, I just don’t think that the Warriors have enough offense to win this game. Are we really ready to bet on KP, Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos and Gary Payton II? I have more faith in the Clippers guys even beyond Leonard and Garland than I do those guys.

If these are the results of the games that would set up Clippers at Blazers and Hornets at 76ers for the 8 seed in each conference. I would pick the Blazers and Hornets in those games to get into the playoffs and set up the Thunder with 2 lottery picks in this year’s draft. The NBA postseason is here and it should be awesome.