2026 NBA Finals preview

The NBA Finals are set and it is time to party like it’s 1999 as the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs are set to face off to play for the NBA’s ultimate prize after they played for the NBA Cup back in December. Let’s unpack how we got here, the keys to the series and, of course, make a pick. 

The New York Knicks had an up and down regular season and through 3 games with the Atlanta Hawks, it looked like the playoffs could be much of the same as they trailed 2-1 in that series. Since that point, the Knicks have been dominant, winning 11 games in a row by an average of 23.8 points per game. They have crushed teams en route to these finals. After back to back CJ McCollum game winners had us wondering about the Knicks, those questions have since vanished as New York won their last 3 games against Atlanta, swept Philadelphia and swept Cleveland, all in dominant fashion. Outside of the Game 1 comeback against the Cavaliers, there haven’t been any huge moments in these playoffs for the Knicks. They have just been that dominant on the path to their first NBA Finals since 1999.

While the Knicks went 12-2 in the playoffs, the Spurs have a bit more of a lengthy path to get here. After a 5 game series win against the Portland Trail Blazers the Spurs came out and lost Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. After winning Games 2 and 3 the Spurs lost Game 4 due to the ejection of Victor Wembanyama after he elbowed Naz Reid. The Spurs did go onto win Games 5 and 6 in dominant fashion, advancing to the Western Conference Finals to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. After winning an all-time Game 1, the Spurs lost Games 2 and 3 to OKC, falling behind 2-1. The next 3 games all belonged to the home team with San Antonio dominating Games 4 and 6 and the Thunder blowing the Spurs out in Game 5. Game 7 was a great game as the Spurs took out the defending champs and advanced to the Finals for the first time since 2014.

These teams played three times during the regular season with the Knicks going 2-1, including an NBA Cup championship. Victor Wembanyama came off the bench in that one, a Knicks win that was defined by the offensive glass, they had 23 offensive rebounds in the game while Mitchell Robinson led the team with 10 himself. The Spurs just had no answer for Robinson on the glass (more on him later). The 2nd game was New Year’s Eve and it was a thriller. The Knicks led the game by 19 but San Antonio came back and stole it from New York to win 134-132. That was the Julian Champagnie game where he had 11 threes in the Spurs win. Their last matchup was a March 1st Knicks blowout where they won 114-89. Regular season matchups don’t carry over to a series but I do think that there are some things we can take away from those games.

One lineup that I think that the Knicks could lean into in this series is an all shooting look with Deuce McBride or Landry Shamet replacing Josh Hart to pull Victor Wembanyama away from the basket. Hart missed the December 31st game so New York did lean into the all shooting look with McBride. It didn’t go well, as the Knicks were -12 in 9:16 giving up 34 points to the Spurs with that look. That is a short sample that we shouldn’t count on translating to this series but something to note. I do think that it is a look New York could lean into to open up their offense, they won Game 1 vs Cleveland because Mike Brown hit that button and opened the floor for Jalen Brunson, but New York is going to need to be really creative to score.

However, we have seen the Knicks do this throughout the past 2 years. Maybe not with this guy defending the rim but the Spurs aren’t the first team to put their center on Hart and wing on Karl-Anthony Towns. The Knicks have faced this scheme a ton and they have faced it in these playoffs with very good results. This is a dominant team with a dominant offense and this isn’t a scheme that the Knicks can’t figure out and break. It will be hard but for a team that is playing as well as New York is, they certainly can figure out how to score in the half court.

One of the biggest points for playing against the Spurs is pulling Wemby away from the basket he is defending. When he is just standing at the rim, he can take you out of your offense completely. How do the Knicks become successful in pulling him away from the basket? Using the guy he is guarding as a screener for Brunson is one answer but he likes to pre-switch that but sending another Spurs player up with the guy that he was guarding to guard the ball screen. The best answer that I have is shooting, which is why I think New York may need to lean into the shooting lineups. Getting out in transition is another way to not have Wemby at the rim and creating turnovers is something the Knicks will need to do. I also think that Mitchell Robinson is a way for the Knicks to limit Wembanyama’s defense at the rim.

As was mentioned, Robinson dominated the offensive glass in the NBA Cup Final that these two teams played. When he is on the court, that is who Wemby will be guarding and if he is chasing blocks, Robinson could feast on the offensive glass. Which leads us to the broken pinky injury. I am sure you have seen that Robinson broke his pinky but is going to play through the injury. The good news is he doesn’t shoot or dribble which is what I assume are the biggest issues with a broken pinky finger. New York needs him in this series, the Spurs first shot defense is elite but as we saw in the OKC series, they are susceptible to offensive rebounds. As I have mentioned before, Robinson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the league, the Knicks offensive rebounding percentage is 10.8% higher with Robinson in the game than it is with him out of the game. With Robinson the Knicks are 1st in offensive rebound percentage in the playoff, without him they rank 14th. The Spurs have been good on the glass in the playoffs, giving up the 5th fewest offensive rebounds but have shown some susceptibilities on the glass. If the Knicks are going to win this series, they are going to need to win on the glass.

The last thing we need to talk about when the Knicks have the ball is Jalen Brunson. We saw the MVP of the league struggle to figure out how to pick on the Spurs defense as they bottled him up and I think there is a world where Brunson struggles to figure out how to score in this series. Stephon Castle is likely going to guard Brunson, though De’Aaron Fox also guarded him a lot when these teams played in the regular season. Brunson really struggled to get going when guarded by Castle and that is understandable, Castle’s size and quickness gives players problems and I think it will give Brunson problems. However, this is Jalen Brunson and he is a tough guy to hold down so I do expect him to find ways to get going in this series.

When the Spurs have the ball, the question for the Knicks is how do they guard Wembanyama? Wemby isn’t a perfect offensive player and he is going to have his off nights. We need to know about when he is on his game, how do the Knicks stop him? OG Anunoby will be the guy who guards Victor, he did it in the regular season and he is the best option to do it on their team. One reason it won’t be Karl-Anthony Towns is that New York needs him on offense and he will commit too many fouls if guarding Victor. Part of what makes Wemby so difficult to guard is his three point shot, which he shot really well in the conference finals. If he isn’t shooting it well, he becomes easier to guard. However, Wemby is at his best when he is rolling hard to the rim, the lobs are nearly impossible to stop because no matter where the pass is, he is probably going to catch it and score. When he is making his threes, his spacing becomes that much more dangerous and San Antonio becomes much harder to defend.

The Spurs guards are also going to play a factor in this series. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are all really good players who can facilitate the offense and get the Spurs going. Let’s start with the veteran in Fox. He is the most, for lack of a better word, calming presence to the Spurs offense. He keeps them organized, does not turn it over and his quickness gives the defense a lot of problems. Dylan Harper is 20-years-old and already so good. He had a lull during the conference finals due to an adductor injury but when he was right, he was awesome, especially in Games 1 and 7 where he gashed the Thunder in the 2 close Spurs wins. His shooting isn’t great but his ability to finish around the rim is incredible this early in his career. Stephon Castle needs to cut down on his turnovers. That has happened as the Spurs got their guards back and he has had the ball less. Like Harper, he is also elite when he is getting down hill and the cross court passes he is throwing are a lot of fun. These are three players that should cause New York a lot of problems in their pursuit of stopping the Spurs offense.

We have talked a lot about the Spurs' advantages but the Knicks also have a lot of levers they can pull in this series. We talked about how this could be a tough series for Jalen Brunson to get going in but he is Jalen Brunson so I don’t expect the Spurs to completely tie him down. We saw in Game 1 vs Cleveland the Cavaliers had Brunson held down and he couldn’t get going in that game but then the Knicks changed their lineup to space the floor more and Brunson was awesome. I think Brunson can pick at De’Aaron Fox in these Finals. Fox guarded Brunson some in the regular season and it did not go great as Brunson was able to score a lot when guarded by Fox. I suspect that is a place Jalen will look to attack. I also think he can get going at the foul line, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got to the line a decent amount against the Spurs and I think Brunson can do that as well. It will be tough but I do expect Brunson to have a good series, which New York will need to win.

Karl-Anthony Towns also needs to have a big series if the Knicks are going to win. He has been awesome in the playoffs, even though his scoring is down, averaging 16.9 points per game while shooting playoff career highs with 57% from the field and 49% from three. His shot attempts are down but they are going in at an incredibly high level. He just needs to stay out of foul trouble because that’ll put the Knicks at a severe disadvantage. Mikal Bridges is also going to need to have a big series. After a slow start to his playoffs, Bridges has caught fire as the postseason has gone on. In the Knicks last 2 rounds, Bridges has averaged 18.0 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game on 60% from the field and 70% from 2-point range (his 33% from three isn’t ideal). Lastly, OG Anunoby has been a monster in these playoffs on both ends of the floor. With his elite defense paired with 19.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game, Anunoby has become the Knicks most consistent running partner for Brunson in these playoffs. If these guys keep up their elite level of play, the Knicks are likely going to win this series.

With that said, I am picking the Spurs to win this series in 6 games. This is probably the toughest Finals pick that we have had since Warriors-Celtics in 2022 (Thunder-Pacers ended up being way more competitive than I thought it would be). Both of these teams are really good and present a ton of issues to the other side but I just think that the Spurs have more levers that they can pull and they also have a 7 foot 5 freak on their team who just blows up his opponents offensive system by just existing. The Knicks are great, they have been the best team in these playoffs and I don’t feel good about picking against them. I just think the Spurs have more answers for the problems New York presents than the Knicks do for the problems San Antonio presents. I also think that Mitchell Robinson getting pinky surgery a week before the Finals start is a big deal and if the pain is too much to play through, he would be a costly loss for the Knicks.

These Finals are going to be awesome and I would not be surprised if we got a 7 game series with either side winning it. These are two elite basketball teams with so many answers to whatever test the other wants to throw at it. While I think the Knicks have been the best team in these playoffs and have shown they are in that top tier of the league, I just think the Spurs are a bit better and win the series.