2026 Conference Finals Preview

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

These two teams have been the best two teams in the NBA all season and now they meet with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. There are so many layers to this series. Let’s start with the MVP candidates, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama. Shai has been the best player in the league this season and won the MVP because of it. His team is off to a dominant start in these playoffs, starting off 8-0 and winning those games by an average of 16.6 points per game. There is a level of concern with Jalen Williams having not played since game 2 of the first round when he injured his hamstring but he says he is healthy and is not on the injury report ahead of game 1. The Thunder are going to need him to be ready to go for this series. The Suns and Luka-less Lakers don’t hold a candle to how good San Antonio is. Let’s talk about the Spurs. They are loaded top to bottom, with a once in a lifetime type of center, elite guard player and solid shooting on the wing, the Spurs have most every answer to any test you throw at them. They’ll need it against the Thunder. Yes, the Spurs beat the Thunder 4 out of 5 in the regular season but that’s the regular season, it doesn’t affect a playoff series. I think that the size of Oklahoma City could present some problems for San Antonio. The Spurs haven’t used their double big lineup at all in these playoffs and I don’t expect that to change in this series. The Thunder do play two bigs and the duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein is a very good one. I am interested to see how the Spurs are able to deal with that duo, which has a net rating of +25.4 in 152 minutes so far in the playoffs. I am also interested to see how the Spurs deal with SGA. The Spurs have some players that he can pick at as the series goes along, some guys who Shai can score pretty consistently on when guarded by them. Stephon Castle is most likely going to be guarding Shai to start the series, how does that affect his offense? Castle has been so valuable to their offense, San Antonio needs him to produce. Will guarding SGA tire him out? I am also interested to see how the Spurs guard can operate when they have the ball. OKC has so many guys they can throw at Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper, that I am interested to see if those three guys can be as effective as they have been the entire postseason.

My Pick: Spurs in 7

I am going to be bold. The Spurs have everything they need to win the title. The talent, the superstar, the guard play, the shooting and the defense. They are ready to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy right now. It doesn’t need to be said but Victor Wembanyama is ready to be the best player in this series, a series that includes the best player in the world. He has been dominant in these playoffs, blocking shots at an historic rate. I do worry about whether they can generate enough points against OKC’s defense but the Thunder have actually been winning games with their offense in these playoffs, scoring 127.6 points per 100 possessions (2nd in the playoffs) while giving up 110.2 points per 100 possessions (6th in the playoffs). OKC is giving up more points in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, which is interesting. The Spurs, meanwhile, have had the best defense in the playoffs thus far, giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions, 3 points better than 2nd place (the Knicks). Jalen Williams’ health is also a concern. Ajay Mitchell has been awesome in the playoffs but he opens up a point for the Spurs guards to attack on offense and he also just isn’t as good of an offensive player as Jalen Williams is. History tells us the Spurs aren’t ready to win at the highest levels yet and maybe we should listen to history, they don’t have the playoff scars, the playoff losses, that typical title teams do. However, the San Antonio Spurs are absolutely good enough to win this series and win the title. I think enough factors line up that they win a close series.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks

After a very bumpy season for both New York and Cleveland in which both teams looked vulnerable, we end up with the preseason expectation as the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks come into the series as the favorite and they should be, they have the best player in the series and, if you’re going by net rating, have been the best team in the playoffs. They are 8-2, have won 7 games in a row and have a net rating of +22.7 in the playoffs. The Knicks have molly whopped their way to the Eastern Conference Finals so Cleveland needs to be careful or this series could get away from them fast. Turnovers have been the Cavs bugaboo for the entire postseason. Entering Sunday’s game 7, they had a turnover rate of 17.6%, according to Cleaning the Glass, which is 15th in the playoffs (only the Lakers were worse). They need to stop turning it over. I am interested to see how Cleveland guards Karl-Anthony Towns. The way the Knicks can space the floor makes you want to put a wing on Towns with your center on Josh Hart but Cleveland starts and (mostly) ends games with 2 centers on the court. That means you have to put one of those guys on Towns, unless Mitchell or James Harden is going to guard Jalen Brunson, which they won’t. Max Strus has been awesome in the playoffs with the way he has guarded Cade Cunningham and others. He will likely draw the Brunson assignment and if Mobley is guarding Towns, I think Cleveland probably switches the Brunson/KAT pick and roll. That is a place where the Knicks can expose the Cavaliers but if Mobley can work well enough on the switches, it could be palatable for Cleveland, even if that does feel like a big if. I do think there are pathways for Cleveland to win this series. Donovan Mitchell hasn’t had a great postseason but he was awesome in Game 7. He was very intentional about everything he wanted to do. His drives, his passes and his threes all felt like he had a plan of what he wanted to do. I was very impressed with how he moved the ball and set up others. Cleveland needs their bigs to deliver like they did in game 7 as well. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen were excellent in the game, Detroit had no answers for them in the paint or on the glass. KAT is going to have a lot on his plate dealing with Cleveland’s double big lineup, if the Cavs bigs can produce, which is another big if. So yes, I do think the Cavs can win the series but I am not picking them.

My pick: Knicks in 6 

I picked Cleveland to win the east in the preseason and I want to stick by that but New York is just better than Cleveland. With the way the Knicks have been guarding and the way OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have been playing offense, they are going to be really tough to beat for anyone. Cleveland has a lot of spots that Brunson can attack when New York has the ball. Harden has been very good on offense (outside of turnover issues) but his defense is woefully bad. He is going to need to guard one of the Knicks wings which makes it very easy for New York to attack him in a bunch of different ways. Yes, the Cavs will be picking on Brunson, and he is going to need to be better than he was at times in the Hawks series but I don’t think that swings the series enough. I just think the Knicks have more offensive options and are better defensively than Cleveland is.