2025 Play-In Preview

The NBA’s regular season has come to an end and the Play-In Tournament has arrived so let’s dive into the four games by breaking them down and making some picks.

8 Hawks at 7 Magic, Tuesday 7:30pm/EST on TNT

This is an interesting game.  These two teams played twice over the last week, once on Tuesday, a game Orlando won, and once on Sunday, a game the Hawks won but most of both team's starters did not play in Sunday’s game.  Both teams are missing key players, Orlando has been without Jalen Suggs since January 25th with a quad injury and Atlanta has been without Jalen Johnson since January 23rd with a shoulder injury.  Both players are out for the season.  The big question of this game is can the Magic generate enough offense to win?  The Magic finished 26th in the NBA in offensive rating.  They are going against a below average Hawks defense so that side of the floor will likely dictate who wins the game.  Paolo Banchero has taken his game to another level as of late, averaging 29.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists over his last 21 games played.  His production in this game will go a long way in determining the outcome.  I will always have a lot of faith in the Hawks offense as long as Trae Young is on the court.  Their offense is 9 points per 100 better with Young on the court vs. when he isn’t.  He makes that much of a difference for the Hawks.

My pick: Hawks

Atlanta has the best player on the court and for as great as Orlando’s defense has been this season, I just don’t think they can create enough baskets to win this game.  Atlanta has a pretty good, frisky team beyond just Young.  Dyson Daniels is going to make an All-Defensive team and has a legit case for Most Improved Player, Zaccharie Risacher had a very underrated rookie season and is a good player and Onyeka Okongwu is enough of a deterrent at the rim to make an impact in this game.  I just don’t think the Magic’s offense is good enough to win this game.

8 Grizzlies at 7 Warriors, Tuesday 10:00pm/EST on TNT

That Clippers-Warriors game on Sunday was an awesome game and a brutal loss for the Warriors.  That Harrison Barnes game winner really killed Golden State and put them in the play-in.  The Butler trade has completely changed the Warriors, since the trade they are 23-8 and though they are in the play-in, it is better to be 7th than it is 10th.  In 348 minutes with Butler on the court and Curry on the bench since the trade the Warriors are +16.9 per 100 possessions.  A small sample size but it shows us they can survive the non-Steph minutes and take some of the burden off of him.  On the defensive end for Golden State, having Butler and Draymond can totally screw up a team's offense.  Their size and length can create a lot of problems for offenses and Memphis is a team who they can cause some problems for.  Brandin Podziemski has also taken a huge leap this season and has really taken off since the Butler trade.  Since January 23rd, Podz has averaged 14.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game.  He is playing really well and has become a good 3rd offensive option for the Warriors as we head towards the playoffs.

My pick: Warriors

The Grizzlies haven’t been playing good basketball for a while now.  Ja Morant hasn’t been himself all season and Jaylen Wells is a bigger loss than people are talking about.  Jaren Jackson Jr. has been great and was on my All-NBA ballot but he also just hasn’t been playing his best ball recently.  Golden State is the better team who has the best player in the game.  We do need to keep an eye on Jimmy Butler’s knee after he banged knees with Kawhi Leonard in Sunday’s loss.

10 Heat at 9 Bulls, Wednesday 7:30pm/EST on ESPN

The Bulls are fun, since February 24th, they are 17-8 and are 7th in net rating.  Since the All-Star break, Josh Giddey has been playing at a really high level averaging 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game.  The backcourt of him and Coby White is a big factor into why the Bulls have been playing well.  The Bulls getting their pick back in the LaVine trade and then making this kind of run could be frustrating for some fans but it has been fun and the Bulls have been playing well.  I’d say just enjoy it, this team has been fun to watch and sometimes living in the moment as a fan is fun.  Meanwhile, Miami has gone in a different direction.  Since February 23rd, Miami is 11-17, though they are 13th in net rating and Cleaning the Glass says their net is more of a 17-11 team over that stretch.  It’ll be a fun game.  I am excited for this one and interested in how the Heat handle the Giddey-White backcourt.

My pick: Bulls

I just think that Chicago has more options than Miami does.  Matas Buzelis has made a run at an All-Rookie team, they still have Nikola Vucevic who is averaging 18.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game.  This is a team that has options to put the ball in the basket that I just don’t think the Heat do.

10 Mavericks at 9 Kings, Wednesday 10:00pm/EST on ESPN

There is a world where the winner of this game makes the playoffs only to get swept by the Thunder in the first round.  Neither team is good, though Dallas has more of an excuse to be mediocre than the Kings do with all the injuries they have had.  The front court of the Mavericks is going to create a lot of headaches for Domantas Sabonis on the offensive end.  With Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford all back from injuries, Dallas has a lot of size and options to throw at Sabonis.  Dallas needs production from their backcourt to win this game, Quintin Grimes would be helpful for them.  Spencer Dinwiddie, Brandon Williams, Klay Thompson and Max Christie are all very important for Dallas in this situation because Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan can fill it up in bunches.

My pick: Mavericks

Malik Monk is not going to play in this game for the Kings and while Kyrie is more important to Dallas than Monk is to the Kings, losing Monk is a huge loss for Sacramento.  They have so many bodies they can throw at Sabonis to limit him while still protecting the rim at a very high level.  Anthony Davis could also have a big game because Sacramento’s front court defense has been shaky all season.

These results would set up Bulls at Magic and Mavericks at Grizzlies on Friday night and I would pick the Magic and Mavericks in those games.  Enjoy the Play-In Tournament everyone!