2025 Finals Preview

My personal favorite sporting event of the year is here.  The 2025 NBA Finals present a lot of fun things.  It will be the 50-32 Pacers against the 68-14 Thunder.  One of these cities is going to win their first NBA championship and one of these star guards is going to stamp their legacy for the rest of their careers.  The basketball should be fun too.  How does Indiana give this historic Thunder defense issues?  Can the Pacers win the turnover battle?  How does Indy make Shai uncomfortable?  Those questions are only for one side.  First let’s see how we got here.

The Indiana Pacers had a wildly successful 2023-24 season that saw them head to the Eastern Conference Finals.  After taking out the Bucks and Knicks in the first 2 rounds, they were swept by the eventual champion, Boston Celtics in those conference finals.  They then had a quiet offseason.  After trading for Pascal Siakam in January 2024, the Pacers didn’t need to do anything major in the summer.  Their big goal was to get Siakam to re-sign with the team because he was due to hit free agency in the summer.  Before he could even hit the open market, the Pacers signed him to a new 4yr/$189.5 million max extension to keep him in Indiana.   The team also extended Andrew Nembhard to a 3yr/$58.6 million contract this past summer as well.  The Pacers were set to run it back, led by their star point guard, Tyrese Haliburton and run it back they did.

It was a bad start to the season for the Pacers, on January 1st, Indiana was 16-18, sitting 8th in the Eastern Conference and looking like their 2024 run was just like the Hawks 2021 run.  Then they turned their season around, from the turn of the New Year onwards the Pacers went 34-14 and they ranked 6th in net rating at +5.5.  They turned themselves into a legit elite team and were a threat in the east playoffs.  In the first round they took on the Milwaukee Bucks.  Many thought Indiana was the better team but how would they fare against Giannis Antetokounmpo after he missed the 2024 first round, they had no issues winning the series in 5.  Game 5 was their first thrilling comeback of this postseason.  Up 7 with 40 seconds left, it looked like the Bucks would close out Indiana and force a game 6.  Then, Milwaukee missed a free throw, had 2 bad turnovers and couldn’t get a stop.  A Tyrese Haliburton layup put the Pacers up 1 and with no Bucks timeouts, the game was over and the Pacers were moving on to face the Cleveland Cavaliers.

After the Pacers stole game 1 on the road, the Cavaliers looked like they were going to win game 2 to even the series.  The Pacers were down 7 with 48 seconds to go, of course, you cannot count the Pacers out.  A pair of Cleveland turnovers really allowed the Pacers back into the game.  Then, after a Cavaliers foul, Tyrese Haliburton got a rebound off of his own missed free throw and hit a three pointer leaving 1 second on the clock again and with no timeouts, the Cavs didn’t get a shot off.  After a tough game 3 loss, the Pacers blew the Cavs out of the water in game 4 before closing the 64 win Cavaliers out in game 5 on Cleveland’s home floor in a 114-105 win in Cleveland.  Next, came a rematch with the Knicks. In game 1, the comeback Pacers struck again, down 9 with 59 seconds to go, no team in NBA history had ever won a game being down that 9+ points with under a minute to go… yet.  Good news for the Pacers, Aaron Nesmith just could not miss.  He hit 6 threes in the 4:45 of regulation, including 3 in the final minute of the game.  Even watching it back is an unbelievable experience.  Then, aided by a few New York misses at the line, Tyrese Haliburton seemed to hit a game winning 3, only for it to be ruled a 2 since his foot was on the line.  Indiana would recover in overtime and steal game 1 in one of the most unbelievable ways you’ll ever see.  Over the next 5 games of the series, Indiana was just the better team.  Their execution was just better than New York’s in games 2, 4 and 6.  While they did let game 3 slip away, they just were better than the Knicks were and that is why they are headed to the Finals.

Last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder had their breakout season.  They won 57 games, captured the number 1 seed and swept the Zion Williamson-less Pelicans in the first round.  Then the 2nd round against the Dallas Mavericks started and they were hit with a dose of reality.  It was a winnable series against the eventual Western Conference champs but one they were not yet ready to win.  Their youth and overall lack of experience showed in big moments in that series, they had chances to steal it but Oklahoma City just couldn’t make enough plays so they were knocked out in 6 games by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.  They had two major flaws.  One was their rebounding so they signed Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency to a 3-year deal.  The second was the play of Josh Giddey, he looked unplayable during the Dallas series.  They traded Giddey to the Bulls for Alex Caruso, who has become one of the biggest contributors to this Thunder team.  Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, the Thunder were ready to make a push at a title.

After one of the most dominant regular seasons of all time, 68 wins and a point differential of +12.87 points per game, the largest point differential of all time.  The Thunder only had one series that brought them any stress.  After obliterating the Grizzlies in a 1st round sweep, the Thunder faced off against the Denver Nuggets in round 2.  After an epic meltdown in game 1 which they should have won but let slip away, the Thunder bounced back with a dominant game 2 win.  They then had chances to win game 3 as well but fell apart in overtime before winning a pivotal game 4 on the road.  Then, the two teams split games 5 and 6 with the home team winning each game.  In game 7, the Thunder dominated the Nuggets by 32 points.  Then, they defeated an overmatched Minnesota team in 5 games as they moved on to the Finals.  There is not as much of a story to tell with this Oklahoma City run because they did not have the epic moments like Indiana did.  However, they have been the best team all year and will provide Indiana a team they have yet to see in these playoffs.

The key to the Pacers winning this series is not turning the ball over.  When the Thunder turn you over and get out in transition, you are dead.  Good news for the Pacers is that they did not turn the ball over much at all during the season.  Their 13.2 turnovers per game ranked tied for 3rd in the regular season and their 12.7 turnovers per game rank 5th in these playoffs.  The Thunder generate a lot of steals, 10.3 per game in the regular season and 10.8 per game in these playoffs.  Indiana is a team that moves the ball a lot so it will be important that they make sure those passes don’t turn into steals and 2 points the other way because giving the Thunder free points is a death sentence.  In both regular season games the Pacers had 11 turnovers.

Another key for the Pacers is the aggressiveness of Tyrese Haliburton.  In the two regular season games these two teams played, Haliburton had a combined 22 points and 11 assists over the two games.  He had 18 points and 2 assists in one game and 2 points and 8 assists in the other.  Indiana is going to need Haliburton to put the two games together during this series if they are going to have any chance of winning.  He will likely be guarded by Lu Dort, one of the toughest defenders in the NBA and when it isn’t Dort, he will likely see Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso.  The Thunder have so many options to throw at Hali and he will need to figure out how to break the Thunder’s defense quickly if he wants to be a champion.

One place this series is going to be won is in transition.  These are the two teams who lead the playoffs in transition points per game.  The Pacers generate fast break points in all areas.  One place the Knicks lost the conference finals was with their transition defense, too many times the Pacers would get out in transition after a made basket by New York.  Oklahoma City creates transition opportunities by forcing turnovers.  These two teams are also 2nd and 3rd best in the playoffs with their transition defense, only Boston is better.  The transition part of this series will play a key factor in who wins it.

Indiana just had no answer for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander during the regular season.  The MVP of the league had 33 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds in the March 29th contest between these teams and 45 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds in the December 26th game.  Andrew Nembhard will get the assignment, he guarded him on 70 combined possessions in the regular season, doing a better job on March 29th after SGA torched Nembhard scoring 16 points on 7/8 from the field on December 26th.

Another thing to note is that the Pacers defense has fallen apart in these playoffs with Pascal Siakam on the bench.  In 537 minutes with Siakam on the court, the Pacers have a defensive rating of 111.4.  In 241 minutes with Siakam off the court, the Pacers have a defensive rating of 122.8.  The Pacers defense is 11.4 points per 100 possessions worse when Siakam is on the bench during these playoffs.  That is something to keep an eye on during this series as well.  How does Indiana’s defense survive with Siakam on the bench?

The last thing I want to do is give Jalen Williams his flowers because has figured it out.  He was awesome in the Western Conference Finals, averaging 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists in the 5 game series.  He had some rough moments in the 2nd round against Denver, going 5/20 in game 1 loss with 16 points and 3/16 in the game 6 loss with just 6 points.  He was great throughout the west finals and showed that he is ready for the moment.  He is just an awesome player and the Thunder would not be here without him.

The pick is Thunder in 5.  They have been statistically one of the most dominant teams in NBA history, 68 regular season wins with the best regular season point differential of all-time. They have so many answers for any problem you present, with one of the greatest defenses you will ever see and having the league MVP as the hub of their offense.  I am just struggling to see a way that the Pacers can beat this team.  They can play big with Holmgren and Hartenstein, they can play 5-out with just Holmgren, they can even go small by having both those guys on the bench.  There is so much versatility with their lineups and the way they can shut you down.  This is an all-time team and this series is likely going to be their crowning achievement.

The NBA Finals are set and it should be a really fun series.  The Pacers have been one of the most fun teams to watch through a playoff run in a while but the Thunder are historically good.  We only have a maximum of 7 games left in the season so enjoy them because there is only so much basketball left.