2025 Conference Finals Preview

The Conference Finals are here so I am going to break down everything you need to know about Timberwolves-Thunder and Pacers-Knicks.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

These are both really good basketball teams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Anthony Edwards is going to be a whole lot of fun.  Let’s start with Minnesota.  After a shaky start to the season, the Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the league since February 1st.  They went 22-12 to close out the regular season with a net rating of +7.  It took a while for them to figure out how to get Julius Randle to fit with their team but they have and Randle has been awesome in these playoffs.  After being questioned for poor playoff performances during his time with the Knicks, Randle has delivered in his first season as a Timberwolf.  Through 10 playoff games, he has averaged 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists.  24, 6 and 6!  Those are extremely impressive numbers and against the Warriors, who had Draymond Green guarding him a lot, he averaged 25.2 points, 7.4 assists and 6.6 rebounds.  If Randle plays like that, the Timberwolves are going to have a real shot in this series.  I do need to give Anthony Edwards and this Wolves defense a shoutout before we get to the Thunder.  Edwards is seeing the game so well and letting it come to him and their defense, which is giving up 108.2 points per 100 possessions in these playoffs (2nd best in the league), it is an elite unit.  Their problem is that Oklahoma City’s defense is better. Giving up 104.1 points per 100, OKC’s defense is generationally good.   This is not a perfect team, their offense can get stuck in mud and struggle to find ways to score.  However, the Thunder are the best team in the NBA.

My Pick: Thunder in 6

The Thunder have the best player in the series.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely going to win the MVP and was awesome in the Nuggets series. 5 games of over 30 points, including 35 on 12/19 from the field in Oklahoma City’s game 7 blowout win.  Jalen Williams is very up and down but when he is up he is simply so so good and when he is down he still brings high level defense and rebounding.  As I mentioned earlier, their defense is also generationally good.  When they force turnovers, you are cooked.  We saw this in game 7, where they scored 37 points off of 22 Nuggets turnovers.  They also don’t turn the ball over.  Their 10.9 turnovers per game is the fewest in the playoffs.  The Timberwolves turn the ball over 14.8 times per game, a high number that will cause Minnesota problems in this series.  The Thunder are better and deeper.  If the Wolves turn it over like they have in the first 2 rounds, they are going to lose.

Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks

I talked at length about the Pacers last week.  They are really good.  Led by Tyrese Haliburton, I think this Pacer team is better than the one they had a season ago.  It is a very similar roster but they are better as a group, especially on the defensive end.  Indiana was the 8th best defense in the league post All-Star break.  That number is a little skewed, their defense hasn’t been great in these playoffs, but they aren’t a disaster like they were last year and that gives them a chance in this series.  The Knicks have been very impressive this postseason.  Many, myself included, gave them no shot to take out the defending champions and they did.  Sure, Jayson Tatum got hurt but Boston was going to lose game 4 and go down 3-1, they likely were not going to win that series even if Tatum was healthy.  For these Knicks, it starts and ends with Jalen Brunson.  Nicknamed Captain Clutch, the Clutch Player of the Year has been clutch throughout these playoffs.  His 43 clutch time points (clutch time is defined in the last 5 minutes in a 5 point game) is the best in the playoffs, 17 more than 2nd place Nikola Jokic.  New York has played the same amount of clutch games as Denver has, Brunson has just been that good in crunch time.  New York’s defense has some issues Brunson and Towns are exploitable so keep an eye on that.  They switched a lot in the Celtics series but they aren’t a team that switches a lot typically so it will be interesting to see how much they’ll switch in this Pacers series.  The long arms of Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby will certainly play a factor in this series as well.  The whole series might come down to whether those guys give enough offense or not.  In games where Anunoby scores 20 points or more in these playoffs, the Knicks are 6-0.

My Pick: Knicks in 7

These are two very evenly matched teams in my mind.  New York has the best player, I’d take Brunson over Haliburton, but the depth of the Pacers is what gives me pause in this series.  They have so many guys they bring off of the bench who can create havoc for the opponent.  Obi Toppin, T.J. McConnell, Benedict Mathuren and others have all played big roles in these playoffs.  That doesn’t even include the starters, Aaron Nesmith, Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Sikam have also all been awesome.  However, I think the top end talent of the Knicks wins out.  Their starters are great and Mitchell Robinson can absolutely wreck the game off the bench.  This series likely comes down to how the Pacers can contain New York’s wings and I think the Knicks get enough to sweek by Indiana.  Besides, it’s not like they’d ever lose a game 7 in the World’s Most Famous Arena… right?