2024 NBA Cup knockout stage preview

The NBA Cup quarter finals take place on Tuesday and Wednesday so I am going to break down all 4 games and give you a pick to win the Cup.

Magic at Bucks, Tuesday 7:00pm/EST on TNT

The Magic have been without star player Paolo Banchero and have been awesome due to the ascension of Franz Wagner, who has broken out in a major way after he had some struggles last season.  Averaging 24.2 points, 5.7 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game, Wagner is averaging a career high in all three of these categories and though the 3 point shot is only at 33%, it has been cold as of late and his percentage should rise again.  Orlando, like every year, is built on their defense as they currently sit 3rd in the NBA in defensive rating, only behind the Thunder and Rockets.  Offense has been a struggle though as the Magic are only scoring 110.8 points per 100 possessions, 22nd in the NBA.  Meanwhile, the Bucks offense has taken off.  Over their last 8 games, Milwaukee is scoring 117.5 points per 100 and their defense has started to turn a corner too as they are giving up 110.3 points per 100.  They are 7-2 over that span and got Khris Middleton back in their loss on Friday to the Celtics.  Doc Rivers has done a great job at keeping the ship on its track and making sure they did not fall off the wagon while Giannis Antetokounmpo is having another MVP caliber season.

I am picking the Bucks to win this game.  With Banchero out and the Bucks getting Middleton back even in what I am assuming will be a reduced role, the Bucks just have more talent than the Magic do.  Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard will just be too much.

Mavericks at Thunder, Tuesday 9:30pm/EST on TNT

A playoff rematch!  These are two awesome teams.  Let’s start with Oklahoma City, who has the best defense in the NBA.  The Thunder will be without Chet Holmgren for this game, who has a pelvic fracture.  We still have not seen the Holmgren-Isaiah Hartenstein pairing take the court yet, as Hartenstein missed the early part of the season.  In fact, the Thunder have shown that the addition of Hartenstein makes them a different team.  With Hartenstein on the court they have a net rating of 16.4, meanwhile with him off the court their net rating is 10.3.  Still an elite team but they are head and shoulders the best team in the sport with Hartenstein on the floor.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having another big year and the Thunder look like one of the best teams in the association.  However, the Mavericks are also really good.  We all remember when the Mavericks buried the Thunder with corner threes in the playoffs last year and they have better shooting this season with the addition of Klay Thompson.  4th in offense, 8th in defense and 5th in net rating, Dallas has shown that they are still a championship contender.  Over the last 11 games they have become elite, owning the best net rating in the sport during that span.  Naji Marshall has broken out over that span averaging 16.1 points on shooting splits of .57/.41/.82 in 8 games played.

I am picking the Mavericks to win this game.  They have turned a corner and are starting to look like the team that went to the NBA Finals last season.  They have found something in Marshall and Spencer Dinwiddie is starting to play very well as well.

Hawks at Knicks, Wednesday 7:00pm/EST on ESPN

A night of relatively recent rivalries renewed and Trae Young returning to Madison Square Garden is always something to watch.  Obviously, this is a whole new Knicks team as Mitchell Robinson is the only player left on the roster and he won’t even play in this game.  That does not change how the fans feel about Young.  I don’t think Knicks fans have that same level of hate for Ice Trae as they did back in 2021, now that the Knicks are gunning for a title and the Hawks just had the 1st pick in the draft.  However, the Hawks are starting to play better.  Dyson Daniels is all of a sudden an awesome player now that he has gotten a shot to start with the Hawks.  He has started all 22 games he has played in averaging 13.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and a league leading 3.1 steals per game this season.  He has been a revelation for Atlanta this season.  They have also rattled off 6 straight wins, including two over the Cavaliers and one over the Bucks, who were the hottest team in the league.  Trae Young leads the league in assists per game at 12 a night and has shown that he is still one of the elite players in the league.  However, New York has also started to turn a corner, the Knicks gave the best offense in the NBA this season.  The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns has done for their offense exactly what we thought it would, giving them more spacing and a different dimension at the 5 that Robinson and Hartenstein couldn’t provide last season.  Mikal Bridges has been up and down but OG Anunoby has looked like a star, averaging a career high 17.7 points per game and being the elite defensive player we have come to know him to be.  He is the key to everything the Knicks want to accomplish this season.

I am picking the Hawks to win this game.  I think the Knicks are a better team than the Hawks are but in a one game setting when anything can happen, I am leaning Atlanta to win this game.  They clearly want the Cup a lot and that plays a role in this.

Warriors at Rockets, Wednesday 9:30pm/EST on TNT

Rockets fans must have Warriors and Stephen Curry PTSD, he has haunted them so many times.  Whether it’s 27 missed threes in game 7 of the 2018 Western Conference Finals or Curry’s 33 2nd half points in game 6 of the second round in 2019 after he put up a goose egg in the first half.  The Warriors have haunted the Rockets fans a lot.  In fact, though the court will be different, both teams will be wearing the same uniforms they wore in that 2018 game 7 on Wednesday night.  This Rockets team is completely different than that one though and they won’t have the demons from all those years ago.  Although these two teams did just play on Thursday in the Bay Area where Golden State defeated Houston without the likes of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green behind a career high of 33 points from Jonathan Kuminga.  This is going to be a defensive slug feast as both these teams are built on their defense.  The Rockets are 2nd in the NBA with a 105.1 defensive rating while the Warriors are 4th at 107.4.  These two teams are absolutely elite on that end as it showed in their matchup on Thursday, a 99-93 Warriors win.  Curry and Green will in all likelihood play in this game after missing Thursday’s contest because it isn’t on a back to back.  The Rockets will need to shoot a better percentage from 3 than they did in that game when they shot 26%.  Both offenses should be better than they were on Thursday night.

I am picking the Rockets to win this game.  The NBA Cup is made for teams like the Rockets. A team that has not played in a lot of big games, who gets a shot to play on the big stage.  The Warriors have also not played good basketball as of late, losing 6 of their last 7.

With all of that said, I am picking the Bucks to win the 2nd NBA Cup.  Though they lost to the Celtics last night, I think the Bucks are starting to turn a corner and winning the Cup could really propel their season as they look to turn it around.